Amryt Pharma plc (AMYT) Discounted Future Market Cap

Amryt Pharma plc

AMYT (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
Amryt Pharma plc Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("quote:close") / data.get("income:eps"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin",
                data.average(f"%netMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0"))  # Historical average
assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate",
                data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0"))  # Historical average

# Calculate a linear regression for forecasting revenues
data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"function:linear_regression:income:revenue start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"function:compound:{data.get('linearRegressionRevenue:1')} rate:{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} offset:-1",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("quote:close"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "number_format": "M",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": ["linearRegressionRevenue"]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	75.12 Thou. USD
Estimated net income	-146.1 Bil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	6,930 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	4,811 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	64.05 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	-0.31 USD
Market Price	14.7 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	-38.16

Historical and forecasted data

In Millions of USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "dates": [2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029], "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [0.0, 1.42, 15.33, 16.53, 58.12, 182.6, 222.5, null, null, null, {"y": 339.1, "oy": 339.1, "e": true, "c": 2025, "g": 39.21, "og": 39.21}, {"y": 1339, "oy": 1339, "e": true, "c": 2026, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}, {"y": 5288, "oy": 5288, "e": true, "c": 2027, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}, {"y": 20885, "oy": 20885, "e": true, "c": 2028, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}, {"y": 82474, "oy": 82474, "e": true, "c": 2029, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [-39.74, -8.21, -45.67, -29.49, -65.54, -104.5, -18.17, null, null, null, {"y": -600.9, "oy": -600.9, "e": true, "c": 2025, "g": 2910, "og": 2910}, {"y": -2373, "oy": -2373, "e": true, "c": 2026, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}, {"y": -9371, "oy": -9371, "e": true, "c": 2027, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}, {"y": -37008, "oy": -37008, "e": true, "c": 2028, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}, {"y": -146145, "oy": -146145, "e": true, "c": 2029, "g": 294.9, "og": 294.9}], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Linear Regression Revenue", "mappingKey": "linearRegressionRevenue", "data": [-44.01, -5.69, 32.62, 70.94, 109.3, 147.6, 185.9, 224.2, 262.5, 300.8, 339.1, 377.4, 415.8, 454.1, 492.4], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2025": 36, "2026": 37, "2027": 38, "2028": 39, "2029": 40}, "properties": {"number_format": "M", "display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

amounts of USD except for #	LTM	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Revenue	243.6	339.1	1,339	5,289	20,885	82,475
Revenue Growth Rate			294.9%	294.9%	294.9%	294.9%
Net Income	-19.96	-600.9	-2,373	-9,372	-37,008	-146,146

Historical Values

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	105.7	243.6	222.5	182.6	58.12	16.53	15.33	1.42	0
Cost of Revenue	58.19	127	106.1	119	42	6.06	6.45	0.616	0
Gross Profit	47.55	116.6	116.4	63.58	16.12	10.47	8.88	0.805	0
Gross Margin	48.67%	47.86%	52.32%	34.82%	27.74%	63.35%	57.95%	56.62%
Operating Income	-28.84	-45.08	-21.64	-45.44	-36.04	-17.45	-17.04	-8.08	-39.93
Operating Margin	-128.6%	-18.5%	-9.72%	-24.89%	-62.01%	-105.5%	-111.2%	-568.6%
Net Income	-41.41	-19.96	-18.17	-104.5	-65.53	-29.49	-45.67	-8.21	-39.74
Net Margin	-177.2%	-8.19%	-8.16%	-57.24%	-112.8%	-178.3%	-297.9%	-577.6%

Historical Growth Rates

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	105.7	243.6	222.5	182.6	58.12	16.53	15.33	1.42	0
Revenue Growth Rate	294.8%		21.87%	214.2%	251.5%	7.85%	978.8%
Net Income	-41.41	-19.96	-18.17	-104.5	-65.53	-29.49	-45.67	-8.21	-39.74
Net Margin	-177.2%	-8.19%	-8.16%	-57.24%	-112.8%	-178.3%	-297.9%	-577.6%
Net Income Growth Rate	270.7%		-82.62%	59.5%	122.3%	-35.43%	456.4%	-79.35%	1,454%
Stockholders Equity	86.67	0	337.4	66.14	129.3	-3.7	26.26	34.75	16.47
Equity Growth Rate	-476.5%		410.2%	-48.85%	-3,599%	-114.1%	-24.43%	111%	-70.56%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	5,002%		-2.57%	-14.16%	-9.59%	-30.36%	-41.57%	-17.75%	35,130%
After-tax Operating Income	-36.97	-36.56	-13.19	-44.87	-35.38	-17.47	-24.82	-9.98	-113.5
Income Tax Rate	-24.05%	18.89%	39.05%	1.26%	1.84%	-0.14%	-45.64%	-23.55%	-184.1%
Invested Capital	196	0	513.3	316.8	368.9	57.55	59.72	56.23	-0.323