ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
ASML
ASML Holding N.V.
ASML (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

The estimated number of years during which the company is expected to experience high growth. After this period, the company will transition to a stable growth phase.

Stable Return On Equity

Stable Return on Equity

The stable Return On Equity (ROE) estimated after the last projected period.

Stable Growth In Perpetuity

Stable Growth in Perpetuity

The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity after the last projected period.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 390.9 USD
Book value of equity invested 48.27 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 66.43 USD
Terminal stage EPS 31.47 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 87.34 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 8.41 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 276.2 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 437.3 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 9.62%
Terminal year's excess return 23.06 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 36.03%
Average historical Payout Ratio 30.81%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 87.93%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.35%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values are in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 37.67 48.62 48.62 58.74 68.54 77.17 83.7
Ending Book Value 48.62 48.27 58.74 68.54 77.17 83.7 87.34
EPS 19.92 26.05 17.52 21.16 24.7 27.8 30.16
Return on Equity 52.8% 53.55% 36.03% 36.03% 36.03% 36.03% 36.03%
Dividend per Share 6.73 6.57 7.4 11.35 16.07 21.27 26.52
Payout Ratio 33.79% 25.22% 42.23% 53.65% 65.08% 76.5% 87.93%
Retained Earnings 13.19 19.48 10.12 9.81 8.62 6.53 3.64
Equity Cost 3.63 4.68 4.68 5.65 6.6 7.43 8.06
Cost of Equity 9.62% 9.62% 9.62% 9.62% 9.62% 9.62% 9.62%
Excess Return 16.29 21.37 12.84 15.51 18.1 20.38 22.1
Discounted Excess Return
11.71 12.91 13.74 14.11 13.96

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 5,017 10,245 7,840 8,652 6,018 6,697 4,341 2,897 2,883 2,563 1,548 1,507
Total Stockholders Equity 14,192 18,936 19,133 14,848 12,075 11,544 16,938 15,573 14,812 12,817 10,329 9,113
Return on Equity 36.03% 53.55% 52.8% 71.65% 52.13% 39.54% 27.88% 19.56% 22.5% 24.82% 16.99% 14.89%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 1,544 2,577 2,648 2,546 2,756 1,631 1,192 1,498 730.8 563 489.4 349.2
Payout Ratio 30.8% 25.22% 33.79% 29.43% 45.8% 24.34% 27.46% 51.74% 25.33% 22.7% 29.87% 23.17%
Shares Outstanding 412.5 392.3 393.5 394.1 397.7 409.8 418.3 420.8 424.9 429.8 425.6 430.6
Earnings per Share 12.42 26.05 19.92 21.95 15.13 16.35 10.38 6.88 6.79 5.77 3.85 3.5
Dividend per Share 3.82 6.57 6.73 6.46 6.93 3.98 2.85 3.56 1.72 1.31 1.15 0.811
Dividend Growth Rate 25.45% -2.38% 4.18% -6.78% 74.12% 39.65% -19.94% 107% 31.3% 13.91% 41.8% -2.87%
Book Value 34.61 48.27 48.62 37.67 30.36 28.17 40.49 37.01 34.86 29.82 24.27 21.16
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