AxoGen, Inc. (AXGN) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
AxoGen, Inc.
AXGN (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 1.62 USD
Book value of equity invested 2.33 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -0.454 USD
Terminal stage EPS -0.014 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 0.045 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 0.004 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -0.258 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -0.394 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.81%
Terminal year's excess return -0.018 USD
Average historical Return on Equity -30.95%
Average historical Payout Ratio -640.2%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 113.7%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 2.23 2.35 2.35 -1.94 0.692 0.075 0.043
Ending Book Value 2.35 2.33 -1.94 0.692 0.075 0.043 0.045
EPS -0.23 -0.156 -0.727 0.599 -0.214 -0.023 -0.013
Return on Equity -10.42% -6.89% -30.95% -30.95% -30.95% -30.95% -30.95%
Dividend per Share
1 3.56 -2.03 0.402 0.009 -0.015
Payout Ratio -489.4% -640.2% -489.4% -338.6% -187.9% -37.08% 113.7%
Retained Earnings
-1.16 -4.28 2.63 -0.617 -0.032 0.002
Equity Cost 0.197 0.207 0.207 -0.171 0.061 0.007 0.004
Cost of Equity 8.81% 8.81% 8.81% 8.81% 8.81% 8.81% 8.81%
Excess Return -0.427 -0.363 -0.934 0.769 -0.275 -0.03 -0.017
Discounted Excess Return
-0.858 0.65 -0.214 -0.021 -0.011

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income -18.98 -7.16 -9.96 -21.72 -27.34 -28.06 -24.8 -29.12 -22.4 -10.45 -14.41 -13.36
Total Stockholders Equity 88.1 105.4 103.9 95.67 101 112.5 123.1 132.2 147 25.18 14.92 8.2
Return on Equity -30.95% -6.89% -10.42% -21.5% -24.29% -22.79% -18.77% -19.81% -88.94% -70% -175.8% 118.8%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 45.2 45.2
Payout Ratio -503.1% -640.2% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4% -489.4%
Shares Outstanding 38.37 45.2 44.26 42.88 42.08 41.22 39.97 39.23 37.13 33.32 30.7 26.08
Earnings per Share -0.498 -0.156 -0.23 -0.51 -0.65 -0.68 -0.62 -0.74 -0.6 -0.31 -0.47 -0.51
Dividend per Share 1.0 1
Dividend Growth Rate
Book Value 2.18 2.33 2.35 2.23 2.4 2.73 3.08 3.37 3.96 0.756 0.486 0.314
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Discounting Cash Flows

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