Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc. (CAF) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Morgan Stanley China A Share Fund, Inc.
CAF (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value -27.81 USD
Book value of equity invested 15.64 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -2.73 USD
Terminal stage EPS 0.302 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 18.09 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.01 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -40.72 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -53.44 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 5.59%
Terminal year's excess return -0.709 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 1.67%
Average historical Payout Ratio 48.24%
Payout Ratio in stable stage -155.2%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.26%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 14.87 15.68 15.68 15.93 16.28 16.75 17.35
Ending Book Value 15.68 15.64 15.93 16.28 16.75 17.35 18.09
EPS 1.03 1.03 0.262 0.266 0.272 0.28 0.29
Return on Equity 5.47% 6.56% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67% 1.67%
Dividend per Share
0.327 0.02 -0.088 -0.201 -0.32 -0.45
Payout Ratio 7.55% 31.75% 7.55% -33.15% -73.85% -114.5% -155.2%
Retained Earnings
0.703 0.242 0.354 0.472 0.6 0.739
Equity Cost 0.831 0.876 0.876 0.89 0.909 0.936 0.969
Cost of Equity 5.59% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59% 5.59%
Excess Return 0.198 0.154 -0.614 -0.624 -0.638 -0.656 -0.68
Discounted Excess Return
-0.582 -0.56 -0.542 -0.528 -0.518

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 6.85 17.67 17.67 -45.74 -132.5 -13.54 61.34 88.18 -110.1 187.6 -41.48 46.27
Total Stockholders Equity 443.6 269.4 269.4 322.9 373.4 506 548.9 538 467.8 615.7 454.7 513.6
Return on Equity 1.67% 6.56% 5.47% -12.25% -26.19% -2.47% 11.4% 18.85% -17.88% 41.27% -8.08% 1.67%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 47.98 5.63
2.65 0.059 29.32 50.33 17.96 37.85 26.7 17.44 291.9
Payout Ratio 44.54% 31.75% 7.55% -5.78% -0.045% -216.1% 82.14% 20.37% -34.39% 14.24% -41.95% 632.2%
Shares Outstanding 21.01 17.22 17.18 21.71 21.88 21.88 21.88 21.88 21.88 21.88 21.88 21.88
Earnings per Share 0.35 1.03 1.03 -2.11 -6.06 -0.62 2.8 4.03 -5.03 8.57 -1.9 2.11
Dividend per Share 2.2 0.327
0.122 0.003 1.34 2.3 0.821 1.73 1.22 0.797 13.34
Dividend Growth Rate 564.6%
4,419% -99.8% -41.74% 180.1% -52.54% 41.8% 53.07% -94.03% 675.6%
Book Value 20.89 15.64 15.68 14.87 17.07 23.13 25.09 24.59 21.38 28.14 20.78 23.47
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Discounting Cash Flows

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