Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. (COCP) Discounted Future Market Cap

Cocrystal Pharma, Inc.

COCP (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
Cocrystal Pharma, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("quote:close") / data.get("income:eps"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin",
                data.average(f"%netMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0"))  # Historical average
assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate",
                data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0"))  # Historical average

# Calculate a linear regression for forecasting revenues
data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"function:linear_regression:income:revenue start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"function:compound:{data.get('linearRegressionRevenue:1')} rate:{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} offset:-1",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("quote:close"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "number_format": "M",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": ["linearRegressionRevenue"]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	189.5 USD
Estimated net income	-3.81 Bil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	3.62 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	1.93 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	10.17 Mil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	-1.57 USD
Market Price	1.49 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	-0.956

Historical and forecasted data

In Millions of USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "dates": [2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029], "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [0.078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.56, 2.01, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, {"y": 0.691, "oy": 0.691, "e": true, "c": 2025, "g": null, "og": null}, {"y": 1.55, "oy": 1.55, "e": true, "c": 2026, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}, {"y": 3.47, "oy": 3.47, "e": true, "c": 2027, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}, {"y": 7.79, "oy": 7.79, "e": true, "c": 2028, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}, {"y": 17.48, "oy": 17.48, "e": true, "c": 2029, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [-50.12, -74.87, -0.613, -49.05, -48.19, -9.66, -14.19, -38.84, -17.98, -17.5, {"y": -150.7, "oy": -150.7, "e": true, "c": 2025, "g": 760.8, "og": 760.8}, {"y": -338.0, "oy": -338.0, "e": true, "c": 2026, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}, {"y": -758.1, "oy": -758.1, "e": true, "c": 2027, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}, {"y": -1700, "oy": -1700, "e": true, "c": 2028, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}, {"y": -3813, "oy": -3813, "e": true, "c": 2029, "g": 124.3, "og": 124.3}], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Linear Regression Revenue", "mappingKey": "linearRegressionRevenue", "data": [1.01, 0.977, 0.945, 0.913, 0.882, 0.85, 0.818, 0.786, 0.754, 0.722, 0.691, 0.659, 0.627, 0.595, 0.563], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2025": 36, "2026": 37, "2027": 38, "2028": 39, "2029": 40}, "properties": {"number_format": "M", "display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

amounts of USD except for #	2024	LTM	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Revenue	0	0	0.691	1.55	3.47	7.79	17.48
Revenue Growth Rate				124.3%	124.3%	124.3%	124.3%
Net Income	-17.5	-15.85	-150.7	-338	-758.1	-1,700	-3,814

Historical Values

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	2.89	0	0	0	0	0	2.01	6.56	0	0	0	0.078
Cost of Revenue	0.134	0.061	0	0.015	0.242	0.239	0.239	0.004	0.05	0.101	0.201	0.192
Gross Profit	-0.781	-0.033	0	-15.17	-0.242	-0.239	1.78	6.56	-0.05	-0.101	-0.201	-0.114
Gross Margin	13.96%						88.14%	99.94%				-146.2%
Operating Income	-36.1	-16.06	-17.88	-21.16	-38.83	-14.22	-9.59	-48.41	-62.92	-8.26	-105.8	-53.95
Operating Margin	-23,460%						-476%	-737.4%				-69,160%
Net Income	-30.62	-15.85	-17.5	-17.98	-38.84	-14.19	-9.66	-48.19	-49.05	-0.613	-74.87	-50.12
Net Margin	-21,820%						-479.4%	-734.1%				-64,260%

Historical Growth Rates

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	2.89	0	0	0	0	0	2.01	6.56	0	0	0	0.078
Revenue Growth Rate	124.3%					-100%	-69.32%				-100%	766.7%
Net Income	-30.62	-15.85	-17.5	-17.98	-38.84	-14.19	-9.66	-48.19	-49.05	-0.613	-74.87	-50.12
Net Margin	-21,820%						-479.4%	-734.1%				-64,260%
Net Income Growth Rate	5,314%	-9.46%	-2.67%	-53.69%	173.7%	46.94%	-79.96%	-1.75%	7,901%	-99.18%	49.38%	50,530%
Stockholders Equity	61.89	7.3	9.52	26.38	39.57	77.55	52.51	25.71	66.89	105.4	102.3	167.6
Equity Growth Rate	206.2%	-23.3%	-63.91%	-33.32%	-48.98%	47.7%	104.2%	-61.57%	-36.54%	3.01%	-38.95%	2,420%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	-528.5%	-888.8%	-1,531%	-1,287%	-1,566%	-74.31%	-48.27%	-257.2%	-76.66%	-0.567%	-63.75%	-19.86%
After-tax Operating Income	-30.32	-16.06	-17.88	-21.16	-38.84	-14.23	-9.59	-48.43	-49.28	-0.676	-75.99	-41.36
Income Tax Rate	20.61%	0%	0%	0%	-0.021%	-0.028%	-0.083%	-0.039%	21.69%	91.82%	28.19%	23.33%
Invested Capital	52.36	1.81	1.17	1.64	2.48	19.14	19.87	18.83	64.28	119.3	119.2	208.3