Discover Financial Services (DFS) Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple - Discounting Cash Flows
DFS
Discover Financial Services
DFS (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Equity Weight * Cost of Equity + Debt Weight * Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate)

Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.

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Cost of Equity

Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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Cost of Debt

Cost of Debt = Interest Expense / Total Debt

The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.

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Equity & Debt Weights

Debt Weight = Total Debt / (Market Capitalization + Total Debt) = 1 - Equity Weight

The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).


Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.

↳ Beta

Beta

Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.

↳ Tax Rate

Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).

This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.

Discount Rate

Discount Rate =
Debt Weight × Cost of Debt × (1 − Tax Rate)
+ Equity Weight × Cost of Equity

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Exit Ebitda Multiple

Exit EBITDA Multiple

The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.

Ebitda Margin

EBITDA Margin

EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.

Capital Expenditure To Ebitda

Capital Expenditure to EBITDA

Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.

Operating Cash Flow To Ebitda

Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA

Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Results

Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA) 5.78
Terminal EBITDA 18.51 Bil. USD
Terminal Enterprise Value 107 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value 56.96 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 54.91 Bil. USD
Present Enterprise Value 111.9 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 19.38 Bil. USD
Total Debt 14.54 Bil. USD
Present Equity Value 116.7 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 252 Mil.
Estimated Value per Share 463.1 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.04%
Cost of Equity 9.15%
Equity Weight 77.62%
Cost of Debt 37.87%
Debt Weight 22.38%
Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR 12.29%
Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR 16.62%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2024
Dec 31
LTM
Feb 15
2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
Revenue 20,020 22,148 22,480 25,243 28,346 31,829 35,741
Revenue Growth Rate 103.4% 10.63% 12.29% 12.29% 12.29% 12.29% 12.29%
EBITDA 17,676 7,867 11,645 13,076 14,683 16,488 18,514
EBITDA Margin 88.29% 35.52% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8% 51.8%
Operating Cash Flow 8,425 8,714 11,645 13,076 14,683 16,488 18,514
Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA 47.66% 110.8% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Capital Expenditure 268 261 578.1 649.1 728.9 818.4 919
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA 1.52% 3.32% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96% 4.96%
Free Cash Flow 8,157 8,453 11,067 12,427 13,954 15,669 17,595
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA 46.15% 107.4% 95.04% 95.04% 95.04% 95.04% 95.04%
Compounded Discount Rate
0% 11.65% 26.66% 43.73% 63.05%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 8,157 8,453 11,067 11,130 11,017 10,902 10,791

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 15
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 12,584 22,148 20,020 9,842 13,337 12,087 11,088 11,459 10,709 9,897 9,099 8,739
Revenue Growth Rate 12.28% 10.63% 103.4% -26.21% 10.34% 9.01% -3.24% 7% 8.21% 8.77% 4.12% 3.09%
Cost of Revenue 879.2 7,561 2,110 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Gross Profit 11,705 14,587 17,910 9,842 13,337 12,087 11,088 11,459 10,709 9,897 9,099 8,739
Gross Margin 95.94% 65.86% 89.46% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
EBITDA 6,636 7,867 17,676 5,114 7,801 7,253 1,633 3,999 5,878 5,315 5,191 5,266
EBITDA Margin 51.8% 35.52% 88.29% 51.96% 58.49% 60.01% 14.73% 34.9% 54.89% 53.7% 57.05% 60.26%
Net Income 3,245 4,795 4,535 2,940 4,374 5,422 1,141 2,957 2,742 2,099 2,393 2,297
Net Income to EBITDA 54.05% 60.95% 25.66% 57.49% 56.07% 74.76% 69.87% 73.94% 46.65% 39.49% 46.1% 43.62%
Cash from Operating Activities 6,357 8,714 8,425 8,563 7,140 6,019 6,196 6,196 5,191 5,208 4,425 3,854
Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA 125.4% 110.8% 47.66% 167.4% 91.53% 82.99% 379.4% 154.9% 88.31% 97.99% 85.24% 73.19%
Capital Expenditure 238.7 261 268 303 236 194 261 284 254 218 179 168
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA 4.96% 3.32% 1.52% 5.92% 3.02% 2.67% 15.98% 7.1% 4.32% 4.1% 3.45% 3.19%
Free Cash Flow 6,119 8,453 8,157 8,260 6,904 5,825 5,935 5,912 4,937 4,990 4,246 3,686
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA 120.4% 107.4% 46.15% 161.5% 88.5% 80.31% 363.4% 147.8% 83.99% 93.89% 81.8% 70%
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Discounting Cash Flows

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