Discover Financial Services (DFS) Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model - Discounting Cash Flows
DFS
Discover Financial Services
DFS (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, calculated using [Sum of Discounted Dividends], followed by a period of stable growth, calculated using [Discounted Terminal Value].

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

The estimated number of years during which the company is expected to experience high growth. After this period, the company will transition to a stable growth phase.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

High Growth Rate

High Growth Rate

The estimated growth rate of Earnings Per Share (EPS) during the high-growth phase.

High Growth Payout

High Growth Payout

The estimated dividend payout rate expressed as a percentage of Earnings Per Share (EPS) during the high-growth phase.

Stable Growth In Perpetuity

Stable Growth in Perpetuity

The estimated stable rate at which the company's Earnings Per Share (EPS) will grow in perpetuity after the last projected period.

Stable Payout

Stable Payout

The estimated dividend payout rate expressed as a percentage of Earnings Per Share (EPS) after the last projected period.

Results

Sum of discounted dividends 19.5 USD
Discounted terminal value 265.2 USD
Terminal value 410.9 USD
Dividend in stable phase 27.33 USD
EPS in stable phase 30.37 USD
Average historical Dividend Growth Rate 10.84%
Average historical Payout Ratio 21.03%
Average historical Return on Equity 25.81%

Historical and Projected Dividends

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2024
Dec 31
LTM
Feb 15
2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
Earnings Per Share 17.71 18.74 19.63 21.76 24.12 26.73 29.63
Dividend per Share 2.8 2.8 4.13 4.58 5.07 5.62 6.23
Dividend Growth Rate 3.7% 0% 47.43% 10.84% 10.84% 10.84% 10.84%
Discounted Dividend 2.8 2.8 3.78 3.84 3.9 3.96 4.02

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 15
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Net Income 3,245 4,795 4,535 2,940 4,374 5,422 1,141 2,957 2,742 2,099 2,393 2,297
Equity 13,254 18,963 17,926 14,235 13,895 13,408 10,884 11,859 11,130 10,892 11,323 11,275
Return on Equity 25.81% 26.75% 31.86% 21.16% 32.62% 49.82% 9.62% 26.57% 25.17% 18.54% 21.22% 20.63%
Common Dividends 574.3 705.6 702.8 685.8 637.1 564 540.3 537.6 516 486.2 469.8 472
Payout Ratio 21.03% 14.94% 15.81% 23.98% 14.87% 10.54% 48.89% 18.48% 18.82% 23.94% 20.1% 21.01%
Shares Outstanding 320.1 252 251 254 277 300 307 320 344 374 405 437
Reference Market Price 103.7 200.0 176.1 112.4 97.83 115.6 90.53 83.88 61.29 76.92 72.09 53.62
EPS 10.73 18.74 17.71 11.26 15.47 17.84 3.6 9.09 7.97 5.43 5.77 5.14
Dividend per Share 1.91 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.3 1.88 1.76 1.68 1.5 1.3 1.16 1.08
Dividend Growth Rate 10.84% 0% 3.7% 17.39% 22.34% 6.82% 4.76% 12% 15.38% 12.07% 7.41% 17.39%
Dividend Yield 1.92% 1.4% 1.59% 2.4% 2.35% 1.63% 1.94% 2% 2.45% 1.69% 1.61% 2.01%
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Discounting Cash Flows

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