Evofem Biosciences, Inc. (EVFM) Discounted Future Market Cap

Evofem Biosciences, Inc.

EVFM (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
Evofem Biosciences, Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

"""
    Model: Discounted Future Market Cap

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the Future Market Capitalization using the estimated PE Ratio and then discounting it to the Present using an Annual Required Rate of Return.
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "pe_ratio": data.get("quote:close") / data.get("income:eps"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%net_income_margin": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# Calculate cost of equity
cost_of_equity = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate") + assumptions.get("beta") * assumptions.get("%market_premium")
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", cost_of_equity)

# Compute metrics
data.compute({
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operating_margin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:netIncome",
    "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "function:growth:balance:totalStockholdersEquity",

# Calculating NOPAT (Net Operating Profit After Taxes)
    "%taxRate": "income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax",
    "incomeTax": "income:operatingIncome * %taxRate",
    "nopat": "income:operatingIncome - incomeTax",

# Calculating Invested Capital
    "investedCapital": [
        "balance:totalNonCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:cashAndCashEquivalents", "+",
        "balance:totalCurrentAssets", "-", "balance:totalCurrentLiabilities"
    ],
    "%roic": "nopat / investedCapital",
})

assumptions.set("%net_income_margin",
                data.average(f"%netMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0"))  # Historical average
assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate",
                data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0"))  # Historical average

# Calculate a linear regression for forecasting revenues
data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"function:linear_regression:income:revenue start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"function:compound:{data.get('linearRegressionRevenue:1')} rate:{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} offset:-1",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "income:netIncome": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%net_income_margin')}",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

projected_revenue = data.get("revenue")
projected_net_income = data.get(f"income:netIncome:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

shares_outstanding = data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
future_market_cap = assumptions.get("pe_ratio") * projected_net_income
discounted_future_market_cap = future_market_cap / (
            (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

stock_value = discounted_future_market_cap / shares_outstanding

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [stock_value, "Present Value", "$"],
    [projected_net_income, "Estimated net income", "$"],
    [future_market_cap, "Estimated market capitalization", "$"],
    [discounted_future_market_cap, "Market capitalization discounted to present", "$"],
    [shares_outstanding, "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [data.get("income:eps"), "Earnings Per Share (EPS)", "$"],
    [data.get("quote:close"), "Market Price", "$"],
    [data.get("ratio:priceEarningsRatio"), "Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio", "#"]
])

# Render chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and forecasted data",
        "number_format": "M",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "income:netIncome"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": ["linearRegressionRevenue"]
    }
})

# Render table for estimated future values
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M"
    }
})

# Render historical values table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operating_margin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Render historical growth rates table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "%netIncomeGrowthRate": "Net Income Growth Rate",
        "balance:totalStockholdersEquity": "Stockholders Equity",
        "%totalStockholdersEquityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "%roic": "Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)",
        "nopat": "After-tax Operating Income",
        "%taxRate": "Income Tax Rate",
        "investedCapital": "Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Growth Rates",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

# Set description for assumptions
assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate

`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time.
        By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.
    """,

"pe_ratio": r"""
        ## Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio

Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate

The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%net_income_margin": r"""
        ## Net Income Margin

Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years

The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.
    """,
})

print("End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Future Market Cap

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.	%
Pe Ratio Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years for projecting the analysis into the future.	#

Results
Present Value	32.52 USD
Estimated net income	-566.5 Bil. USD
Estimated market capitalization	197.6 Bil. USD
Market capitalization discounted to present	198 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	6.09 Bil.
Earnings Per Share (EPS)	-0.028 USD
Market Price	0.01 USD
Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio	-0.359

Historical and forecasted data

In Millions of USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical and forecasted data", "dates": [2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029], "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.446, 8.24, 16.84, 18.22, 19.36, {"y": 20.02, "oy": 20.02, "e": true, "c": 2025, "g": 3.37, "og": 3.37}, {"y": 94.2, "oy": 94.2, "e": true, "c": 2026, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}, {"y": 443.3, "oy": 443.3, "e": true, "c": 2027, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}, {"y": 2086, "oy": 2086, "e": true, "c": 2028, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}, {"y": 9817, "oy": 9817, "e": true, "c": 2029, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [-43.16, -13.02, -105.3, -125.7, -80.03, -142.3, -205.2, -76.7, 52.98, -8.86, {"y": -1155, "oy": -1155, "e": true, "c": 2025, "g": 12937, "og": 12937}, {"y": -5436, "oy": -5436, "e": true, "c": 2026, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}, {"y": -25581, "oy": -25581, "e": true, "c": 2027, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}, {"y": -120388, "oy": -120388, "e": true, "c": 2028, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}, {"y": -566547, "oy": -566547, "e": true, "c": 2029, "g": 370.6, "og": 370.6}], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Linear Regression Revenue", "mappingKey": "linearRegressionRevenue", "data": [-4.9, -2.41, 0.081, 2.57, 5.06, 7.56, 10.05, 12.54, 15.03, 17.52, 20.02, 22.51, 25.0, 27.49, 29.98], "dataType": ".", "numberFormat": "M", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2025": 36, "2026": 37, "2027": 38, "2028": 39, "2029": 40}, "properties": {"number_format": "M", "display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

amounts of USD except for #	2024	LTM	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Revenue	19.36	16.61	20.02	94.2	443.3	2,086	9,817
Revenue Growth Rate	6.29%	-14.24%	3.37%	370.6%	370.6%	370.6%	370.6%
Net Income	-8.86	-3.1	-1,155	-5,436	-25,582	-120,388	-566,547

Historical Values

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	13.29	16.61	19.36	18.22	16.84	8.24	0.446	0	0	0	0	0
Cost of Revenue	2.32	3.52	3.83	6.51	4.42	4.05	1.65	0.905	0.262	0.244	0.069	0.058
Gross Profit	4.93	13.09	15.53	11.71	12.42	4.19	-1.2	-0.905	-0.262	-0.244	-0.069	-0.058
Gross Margin	13.03%	78.83%	80.2%	64.26%	73.78%	50.81%	-269.7%
Operating Income	-54.98	-4.5	-7.68	-17.85	-84.12	-166.8	-103.6	-52.74	-77.64	-35.69	-12.04	-42.05
Operating Margin	-4,320%	-27.13%	-39.64%	-97.96%	-499.6%	-2,023%	-23,230%
Net Income	-68.22	-3.1	-8.86	52.98	-76.7	-205.2	-142.3	-80.03	-125.7	-105.3	-13.02	-43.16
Net Margin	-5,771%	-18.64%	-45.76%	290.8%	-455.5%	-2,489%	-31,910%

Historical Growth Rates

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	13.29	16.61	19.36	18.22	16.84	8.24	0.446	0	0	0	0	0
Revenue Growth Rate	370.5%	-14.24%	6.29%	8.2%	104.2%	1,748%
Net Income	-68.22	-3.1	-8.86	52.98	-76.7	-205.2	-142.3	-80.03	-125.7	-105.3	-13.02	-43.16
Net Margin	-5,771%	-18.64%	-45.76%	290.8%	-455.5%	-2,489%	-31,910%
Net Income Growth Rate	57.23%	-65.07%	-116.7%	-169.1%	-62.62%	44.19%	77.81%	-36.34%	19.38%	708.9%	-69.83%	298.9%
Stockholders Equity	-40.39	-64.8	-71.26	-66.51	-71.8	-99.58	1.35	15.64	-23.36	-99.67	11.91	23.81
Equity Growth Rate	-810.4%	-9.06%	7.14%	-7.37%	-27.89%	-7,492%	-91.39%	-166.9%	-76.57%	-936.6%	-49.95%	-63.51%
Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)	1,899%	7.74%	13.37%	28.55%	117.8%	162.1%	267.3%	22,070%	315%	35.47%	-2,758%	624.2%
After-tax Operating Income	-54.98	-4.5	-7.68	-17.84	-84.17	-166.8	-103.6	-52.74	-77.64	-35.69	-12.04	-42.05
Income Tax Rate	-0.007%	0%	0%	0.032%	-0.057%	-0.008%	-0.003%	-0.005%	-0.002%	-0.003%	0%	0%
Invested Capital	-47.54	-58.2	-57.4	-62.49	-71.44	-102.9	-38.77	-0.239	-24.65	-100.6	0.437	-6.74