The First Bancshares, Inc. (FBMS) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
The First Bancshares, Inc.
FBMS (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 42.57 USD
Book value of equity invested 31.89 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 1.77 USD
Terminal stage EPS 3.93 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 41.68 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 3.41 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 8.9 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 13.19 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.19%
Terminal year's excess return 0.521 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 9.43%
Average historical Payout Ratio 21.62%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 55.06%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 30.25 31.89 31.89 34.05 36.13 38.12 39.98
Ending Book Value 31.89 31.89 34.05 36.13 38.12 39.98 41.68
EPS 2.45 2.45 3.01 3.21 3.41 3.6 3.77
Return on Equity 8.13% 7.68% 9.43% 9.43% 9.43% 9.43% 9.43%
Dividend per Share 1.0 1.0 0.852 1.12 1.42 1.74 2.08
Payout Ratio 40.82% 40.82% 28.31% 34.99% 41.68% 48.37% 55.06%
Retained Earnings 1.45 1.45 2.16 2.09 1.99 1.86 1.7
Equity Cost 2.48 2.61 2.61 2.79 2.96 3.12 3.27
Cost of Equity 8.19% 8.19% 8.19% 8.19% 8.19% 8.19% 8.19%
Excess Return -0.026 -0.16 0.398 0.425 0.451 0.476 0.499
Discounted Excess Return
0.368 0.363 0.356 0.348 0.337

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 45.81 77.19 77.19 75.46 62.92 64.17 52.51 43.74 21.23 10.62 10.12 8.8
Total Stockholders Equity 574.1 1,005 1,005 949 646.7 676.2 644.8 543.7 363.3 222.5 154.5 103.4
Return on Equity 9.43% 7.68% 8.13% 11.67% 9.3% 9.95% 9.66% 12.04% 9.54% 6.87% 9.78% 9.14%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 12.7 31.53 31.53 28.24 16.39 12.28 8.75 5.29 2.6 1.43 0.815 0.8
Payout Ratio 21.62% 40.82% 40.82% 37.34% 25.87% 19.02% 16.6% 12.06% 13.99% 13.39% 8.43% 9.49%
Shares Outstanding 19 31.53 31.53 31.37 22.16 21.18 20.84 17.05 12.99 9.56 5.44 5.37
Earnings per Share 2.2 2.45 2.45 2.41 2.86 3.05 2.53 2.57 1.43 1.12 1.78 1.57
Dividend per Share 0.509 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.74 0.58 0.42 0.31 0.2 0.15 0.15 0.149
Dividend Growth Rate 24.69% 0% 11.11% 21.62% 27.59% 38.1% 35.48% 55% 33.33% 0% 0.671% -0.667%
Book Value 28.81 31.89 31.89 30.25 29.19 31.93 30.95 31.89 27.97 23.26 28.43 19.26
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Discounting Cash Flows

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