The New Germany Fund, Inc. (GF) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
The New Germany Fund, Inc.
GF (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 2.97 USD
Book value of equity invested 9.42 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -1.07 USD
Terminal stage EPS 0.884 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 14.47 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.22 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -5.38 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -8.07 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.43%
Terminal year's excess return -0.337 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 6.11%
Average historical Payout Ratio -164.8%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 30.23%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.26%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 10.34 9.42 9.42 10.72 11.94 13.02 13.88
Ending Book Value 9.42 9.42 10.72 11.94 13.02 13.88 14.47
EPS -1.25 -1.24 0.575 0.654 0.729 0.795 0.848
Return on Equity -11.31% -13.26% 6.11% 6.11% 6.11% 6.11% 6.11%
Dividend per Share 0.072 0.067 -0.723 -0.568 -0.348 -0.07 0.256
Payout Ratio -5.77% -5.38% -125.8% -86.79% -47.78% -8.77% 30.23%
Retained Earnings -1.32 -1.31 1.3 1.22 1.08 0.864 0.591
Equity Cost 0.872 0.794 0.794 0.904 1.01 1.1 1.17
Cost of Equity 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43%
Excess Return -2.12 -2.03 -0.219 -0.249 -0.278 -0.303 -0.323
Discounted Excess Return
-0.202 -0.212 -0.218 -0.219 -0.216

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 13.1 -20.21 -20.21 24.03 -106.4 9.19 97.49 78.94 -68.17 115.4 -0.664 34.63
Total Stockholders Equity 233.5 152.4 152.4 178.8 161.4 257.4 337.6 285.2 210.6 339.6 235.8 257.8
Return on Equity 6.11% -13.26% -11.31% 14.89% -41.31% 2.72% 34.19% 37.49% -20.07% 48.93% -0.257% 15.16%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 23.21 1.08 1.17 1.21 12.78 90.54 38.19 8.16 56.8 11.74 18.59 15.06
Payout Ratio -164.8% -5.38% -5.77% 5.05% -12.02% 988.1% 39.17% 10.34% -83.33% 10.22% -2,803% 43.59%
Shares Outstanding 16.02 16.18 16.18 17.29 16.62 15.53 15.52 15.82 15.56 15.8 15.75 15.92
Earnings per Share 0.853 -1.24 -1.25 1.39 -6.4 0.59 6.28 4.99 -4.38 7.27 -0.042 2.17
Dividend per Share 1.48 0.067 0.072 0.07 0.769 5.83 2.46 0.516 3.65 0.743 1.18 0.946
Dividend Growth Rate 55.02% -7.49% 2.71% -90.87% -86.81% 137% 376.7% -85.86% 391.3% -37.03% 24.74% -19.15%
Book Value 14.68 9.42 9.42 10.34 9.71 16.58 21.75 18.03 13.53 21.49 14.97 16.19
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Discounting Cash Flows

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