Graham Holdings Company (GHC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Graham Holdings Company
GHC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 957.27 USD

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#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 1.04 Thou. USD
Book value of equity invested 994.1 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 7.89 USD
Terminal stage EPS 111.5 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 1.29 Thou. USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 109.2 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 39.76 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 59.61 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.43%
Terminal year's excess return 2.36 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 8.62%
Average historical Payout Ratio 7.68%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 48%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 857.0 973.6 973.6 1044 1112 1178 1239
Ending Book Value 973.6 994.1 1044 1112 1178 1239 1294
EPS 164.6 142.0 83.88 89.97 95.87 101.5 106.8
Return on Equity 18.23% 14.66% 8.62% 8.62% 8.62% 8.62% 8.62%
Dividend per Share 6.88 7.12 13.21 21.42 30.55 40.53 51.24
Payout Ratio 4.18% 5.02% 15.74% 23.81% 31.87% 39.93% 48%
Retained Earnings 157.7 134.8 70.67 68.55 65.32 60.97 55.51
Equity Cost 72.27 82.11 82.11 88.07 93.85 99.35 104.5
Cost of Equity 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43% 8.43%
Excess Return 92.35 59.84 1.77 1.9 2.03 2.14 2.26
Discounted Excess Return
1.63 1.62 1.59 1.55 1.5

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 294.8 624.1 724.6 205.3 67.08 352.1 300.4 327.9 271.2 302 168.6 -100.7
Total Stockholders Equity 3,501 4,294 4,257 3,976 3,731 4,400 3,759 3,319 2,917 2,915 2,453 2,491
Return on Equity 8.61% 14.66% 18.23% 5.5% 1.52% 9.37% 9.05% 11.24% 9.3% 12.31% 6.77% -3.19%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 31.23 30.76 30.08 30.62 30.48 29.9 29.72 29.38 28.37 28.02 26.91 49.25
Payout Ratio 7.68% 5.02% 4.18% 15.01% 45.7% 8.55% 9.95% 9.01% 10.46% 9.37% 16.16% -48.92%
Shares Outstanding 5.06 4.32 4.37 4.64 4.82 4.95 5.12 5.29 5.33 5.52 5.56 5.73
Earnings per Share 61.14 142.0 164.6 43.96 13.83 70.66 58.3 61.69 50.85 54.24 29.95 -17.58
Dividend per Share 6.2 7.12 6.88 6.6 6.32 6.04 5.8 5.56 5.32 5.08 4.84 8.6
Dividend Growth Rate 3.21% 3.49% 4.24% 4.43% 4.64% 4.14% 4.32% 4.51% 4.72% 4.96% -43.72% 39.61%
Book Value 709.1 994.1 973.6 857.0 773.7 888.6 733.7 628.0 546.9 528.5 441.3 434.9
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Discounting Cash Flows

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