Alphabet Inc. (GOOG) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Alphabet Inc.
GOOG (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 147.2 USD
Book value of equity invested 28.34 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 19.92 USD
Terminal stage EPS 10.45 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 44.77 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 3.87 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 98.92 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 149.8 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.65%
Terminal year's excess return 6.58 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 23.34%
Average historical Payout Ratio 6.73%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 81.75%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.26%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 22.44 26.39 26.39 31.21 35.82 39.85 42.94
Ending Book Value 26.39 28.34 31.21 35.82 39.85 42.94 44.77
EPS 8.04 9.06 6.16 7.28 8.36 9.3 10.02
Return on Equity 35.33% 34.14% 23.34% 23.34% 23.34% 23.34% 23.34%
Dividend per Share
0.61 1.34 2.68 4.33 6.21 8.19
Payout Ratio 21.74% 6.73% 21.74% 36.74% 51.74% 66.75% 81.75%
Retained Earnings
8.45 4.82 4.61 4.03 3.09 1.83
Equity Cost 1.94 2.28 2.28 2.7 3.1 3.45 3.72
Cost of Equity 8.65% 8.65% 8.65% 8.65% 8.65% 8.65% 8.65%
Excess Return 6.1 6.78 3.88 4.58 5.26 5.85 6.31
Discounted Excess Return
3.57 3.88 4.1 4.2 4.17

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 52,250 110,996 100,118 73,795 59,972 76,033 40,269 34,343 30,736 12,662 19,478 16,348
Total Stockholders Equity 224,999 345,267 325,084 283,379 256,144 251,635 222,544 201,442 177,628 152,502 139,036 120,331
Return on Equity 23.34% 34.14% 35.33% 28.81% 23.83% 34.17% 19.99% 19.33% 20.15% 9.11% 16.19% 15.64%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 7,432 7,432
Payout Ratio 20.38% 6.73% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74% 21.74%
Shares Outstanding 13,294 12,183 12,319 12,630 13,063 13,353 13,616 13,852 13,901 13,861 13,756 13,696
Earnings per Share 4.03 9.06 8.04 5.84 4.59 5.69 2.96 2.48 2.21 0.91 1.42 1.16
Dividend per Share 0.61 0.61
Dividend Growth Rate
Book Value 17.2 28.34 26.39 22.44 19.61 18.84 16.34 14.54 12.78 11.0 10.11 8.79
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Discounting Cash Flows

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