Green Plains Inc. (GPRE) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Green Plains Inc.
GPRE (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 4.71 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value -26.46 USD
Book value of equity invested 12.45 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -8.56 USD
Terminal stage EPS -0.981 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 15.5 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.49 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -30.35 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -48.06 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 9.63%
Terminal year's excess return -2.47 USD
Average historical Return on Equity -6.33%
Average historical Payout Ratio 101.3%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 170.8%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 14.35 13.56 13.56 13.69 13.94 14.32 14.84
Ending Book Value 13.56 12.45 13.69 13.94 14.32 14.84 15.5
EPS -1.29 -1.63 -0.858 -0.867 -0.883 -0.907 -0.939
Return on Equity -9.78% -12.02% -6.33% -6.33% -6.33% -6.33% -6.33%
Dividend per Share
0.48 -0.989 -1.12 -1.26 -1.42 -1.6
Payout Ratio 115.2% -29.45% 115.2% 129.1% 143% 156.9% 170.8%
Retained Earnings
-2.11 0.13 0.252 0.379 0.516 0.665
Equity Cost 1.38 1.31 1.31 1.32 1.34 1.38 1.43
Cost of Equity 9.63% 9.63% 9.63% 9.63% 9.63% 9.63% 9.63%
Excess Return -2.67 -2.94 -2.16 -2.19 -2.23 -2.29 -2.37
Discounted Excess Return
-1.97 -1.82 -1.69 -1.58 -1.5

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income -54.17 -104 -82.5 -93.38 -103.4 -44.85 -110.7 -151.6 15.92 61.06 10.66 7.06
Total Stockholders Equity 846.8 797.5 865.2 843.7 910 950.5 646.9 751.9 946.8 942.2 862.5 797.8
Return on Equity -6.33% -12.02% -9.78% -10.26% -10.88% -6.93% -14.73% -16.01% 1.69% 7.08% 1.34% 0.886%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 20.5 30.75
19.35 18.84 18.39 15.18
Payout Ratio 108.9% -29.45% 115.2% 115.2% 115.2% 115.2% 115.2% 115.2% 123.1% 30.77% 171.4% 210.5%
Shares Outstanding 47.04 64.07 63.8 58.81 55.54 46.65 34.63 38.11 40.32 39.25 38.32 37.95
Earnings per Share -1.1 -1.63 -1.29 -1.59 -1.86 -0.96 -3.2 -3.98 0.39 1.56 0.28 0.19
Dividend per Share 0.464 0.48
0.48 0.48 0.48 0.4
Dividend Growth Rate 43.34%
0% 0% 20% 66.67%
Book Value 18.78 12.45 13.56 14.35 16.38 20.37 18.68 19.73 23.48 24.01 22.51 21.02
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Discounting Cash Flows

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