Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (HCC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
HCC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 48.27 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 721.5 USD
Book value of equity invested 39.58 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 83.25 USD
Terminal stage EPS 35.55 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 83.41 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 6.51 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 598.6 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 871.9 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 7.81%
Terminal year's excess return 29.03 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 42.62%
Average historical Payout Ratio 21.14%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 89.49%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 36.07 39.99 39.99 51.1 62.32 72.37 79.83
Ending Book Value 39.99 39.58 51.1 62.32 72.37 79.83 83.41
EPS 4.79 2.01 17.04 21.78 26.56 30.84 34.02
Return on Equity 13.37% 5.04% 42.62% 42.62% 42.62% 42.62% 42.62%
Dividend per Share 0.82 0.4 5.93 10.56 16.51 23.39 30.45
Payout Ratio 17.12% 19.88% 34.81% 48.48% 62.15% 75.82% 89.49%
Retained Earnings 3.97 1.61 11.11 11.22 10.05 7.46 3.58
Equity Cost 2.82 3.12 3.12 3.99 4.87 5.65 6.23
Cost of Equity 7.81% 7.81% 7.81% 7.81% 7.81% 7.81% 7.81%
Excess Return 1.97 -1.11 13.92 17.79 21.69 25.19 27.79
Discounted Excess Return
12.91 15.3 17.31 18.65 19.08

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 238.4 105.4 250.6 478.6 641.3 150.9 -35.76 301.7 696.8 455 -111.5 -310.6
Total Stockholders Equity 991.8 2,077 2,091 1,874 1,448 872 725.2 765.6 712.6 413 753 -820.9
Return on Equity 42.62% 5.04% 13.37% 33.07% 73.54% 20.8% -4.67% 42.34% 168.7% 60.43% 13.58% 42.62%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 101.8 20.99 42.88 60.29 79.5 10.28 10.23 234.7 355.4
Payout Ratio 24.87% 19.88% 17.12% 12.6% 12.4% 6.8% -28.57% 77.85% 51.02% 34.81% 34.81% 34.81%
Shares Outstanding 52.11 52.46 52.29 51.97 51.62 51.38 51.17 51.36 52.81 52.8 52.64 52.68
Earnings per Share 4.58 2.01 4.79 9.21 12.42 2.94 -0.7 5.87 13.19 8.62 -2.12 -5.9
Dividend per Share 1.95 0.4 0.82 1.16 1.54 0.2 0.2 4.57 6.73
Dividend Growth Rate 72.84% -51.22% -29.31% -24.68% 670% 0% -95.62% -32.1%
Book Value 19.07 39.58 39.99 36.07 28.04 16.97 14.17 14.91 13.49 7.82 14.3 -15.58
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Discounting Cash Flows

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