Hess Corporation (HES) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Hess Corporation
HES (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value -51.14 USD
Book value of equity invested 37.33 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage -11 USD
Terminal stage EPS -0.07 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 41.27 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 2.87 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage -77.47 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage -108.4 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 6.95%
Terminal year's excess return -2.94 USD
Average historical Return on Equity -0.17%
Average historical Payout Ratio -9%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 2,594%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 29.38 36.55 36.55 36.8 37.39 38.31 39.59
Ending Book Value 36.55 37.33 36.8 37.39 38.31 39.59 41.27
EPS 9.02 7.66 -0.062 -0.063 -0.064 -0.065 -0.067
Return on Equity 30.81% 19.86% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17% -0.17%
Dividend per Share 1.88 2.0 -0.318 -0.646 -0.987 -1.35 -1.75
Payout Ratio 20.84% 26.11% 511.6% 1,032% 1,553% 2,073% 2,594%
Retained Earnings 7.14 5.66 0.256 0.583 0.923 1.29 1.68
Equity Cost 2.04 2.54 2.54 2.56 2.6 2.66 2.75
Cost of Equity 6.95% 6.95% 6.95% 6.95% 6.95% 6.95% 6.95%
Excess Return 6.98 5.12 -2.6 -2.62 -2.66 -2.73 -2.82
Discounted Excess Return
-2.43 -2.29 -2.18 -2.08 -2.01

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income -713.1 2,227 2,769 1,382 2,096 559 -3,093 -240 -282 -4,074 -6,132 -3,056
Total Stockholders Equity 10,416 11,521 11,216 8,986 7,855 6,300 5,366 8,732 9,629 11,051 14,534 19,386
Return on Equity -0.169% 19.86% 30.81% 17.59% 33.27% 10.42% -35.42% -2.49% -2.55% -28.03% -31.63% -13.69%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 391.8 617.2 577 535.3 459.3 307.4 307 301.2 298.2 314 309.9 283.5
Payout Ratio -9% 26.11% 20.84% 38.72% 22.06% 55.56% -9.92% -125% -105.3% -7.71% -5.05% -9.28%
Shares Outstanding 304.4 308.6 306.9 305.9 306.2 307.4 307 301.2 298.2 314 309.9 283.5
Earnings per Share -2.32 7.66 9.02 4.52 6.8 1.8 -10.08 -0.8 -0.95 -12.97 -19.79 -10.78
Dividend per Share 1.28 2.0 1.88 1.75 1.5 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Dividend Growth Rate 20.12% 6.38% 7.43% 16.67% 50% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Book Value 34.42 37.33 36.55 29.38 25.66 20.49 17.48 28.99 32.29 35.19 46.9 68.38
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Discounting Cash Flows

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