HF Sinclair Corporation (HFC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
HF Sinclair Corporation
HFC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 36.39 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 52.59 USD
Book value of equity invested 48.74 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 0.99 USD
Terminal stage EPS 8.69 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 73.46 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 8.35 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 2.86 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 4.9 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 11.37%
Terminal year's excess return 0.338 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 11.83%
Average historical Payout Ratio -28.93%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 62.13%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 53.51 48.3 48.3 54.63 60.61 65.94 70.31
Ending Book Value 48.3 48.74 54.63 60.61 65.94 70.31 73.46
EPS 0.91 -0.77 5.71 6.46 7.17 7.8 8.32
Return on Equity 1.74% -1.53% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83% 11.83%
Dividend per Share
1.4 -0.613 0.484 1.84 3.43 5.17
Payout Ratio -10.72% -181.8% -10.72% 7.49% 25.71% 43.92% 62.13%
Retained Earnings
-2.17 6.33 5.98 5.33 4.37 3.15
Equity Cost 6.08 5.49 5.49 6.21 6.89 7.5 7.99
Cost of Equity 11.37% 11.37% 11.37% 11.37% 11.37% 11.37% 11.37%
Excess Return -5.17 -6.26 0.222 0.251 0.279 0.303 0.323
Discounted Excess Return
0.2 0.203 0.202 0.197 0.189

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 704.2 -141.7 177 1,590 2,923 558.3 -514.9 772.4 1,098 805.4 -260.5 740.1
Total Stockholders Equity 6,903 9,187 9,278 10,169 9,244 5,688 5,168 5,978 5,919 5,371 4,681 5,253
Return on Equity 11.83% -1.53% 1.74% 17.2% 51.38% 10.8% -8.61% 13.05% 20.44% 17.2% -4.96% 13.4%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 236.7 263.9
226.8 222.8 231 232.5 232.5 247.2
Payout Ratio -22.31% -181.8% -10.72% -10.72% -10.72% -10.72% -44.03% 28.88% 21.05% 29.07% -89.19% 33.5%
Shares Outstanding 180 188.5 192.1 190 202.6 162.6 162 166.3 175 176.2 176.1 188.7
Earnings per Share 3.71 -0.77 0.91 8.29 14.28 3.39 -3.18 4.64 6.27 4.54 -1.48 3.91
Dividend per Share 1.34 1.4
1.4 1.34 1.32 1.32 1.32 1.31
Dividend Growth Rate -13.27%
4.48% 1.52% 0% 0% 0.763% -59.82%
Book Value 37.98 48.74 48.3 53.51 45.63 34.99 31.91 35.95 33.82 30.49 26.58 27.84
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Discounting Cash Flows

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