The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc. (HIG) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.
HIG (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 131.21 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 123.7 USD
Book value of equity invested 58.77 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 8.12 USD
Terminal stage EPS 8.6 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 82.07 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 6.15 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 56.86 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 81.58 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 7.49%
Terminal year's excess return 2.45 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 10.48%
Average historical Payout Ratio -26.44%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 57.25%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 49.91 55.96 55.96 62.4 68.47 73.94 78.55
Ending Book Value 55.96 58.77 62.4 68.47 73.94 78.55 82.07
EPS 10.7 -0.399 5.86 6.54 7.18 7.75 8.23
Return on Equity 20.3% 18.17% 10.48% 10.48% 10.48% 10.48% 10.48%
Dividend per Share 1.93 1.98 -0.569 0.46 1.71 3.14 4.71
Payout Ratio 18.04% -495.9% -9.7% 7.03% 23.77% 40.51% 57.25%
Retained Earnings 8.77 -2.38 6.43 6.08 5.47 4.61 3.52
Equity Cost 3.74 4.19 4.19 4.67 5.13 5.54 5.88
Cost of Equity 7.49% 7.49% 7.49% 7.49% 7.49% 7.49% 7.49%
Excess Return 6.96 -4.59 1.67 1.87 2.05 2.21 2.35
Discounted Excess Return
1.56 1.62 1.65 1.66 1.64

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 1,624 2,988 3,111 2,504 1,819 2,371 1,737 2,085 1,807 -3,131 896 1,682
Total Stockholders Equity 16,005 16,844 16,447 15,327 13,631 17,843 18,556 16,270 13,101 13,494 16,903 17,642
Return on Equity 10.48% 18.17% 20.3% 18.37% 10.19% 12.78% 10.68% 15.91% 13.39% -18.52% 5.08% 8.98%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 452.8 567.5 567.2 537.4 513.2 502.7 465.8 433.1 394.2 341.9 333.4 324.1
Payout Ratio -26.44% -495.9% 18.04% 21.63% 28.62% 21.46% 27.14% 20.76% 21.83% -10.92% 37.23% 19.26%
Shares Outstanding 346 286.6 293.9 307.1 324.8 349.1 358.3 360.9 358.4 363.7 387.7 415.5
Earnings per Share 4.0 -0.399 10.7 8.09 5.52 6.71 4.79 5.78 5.04 -8.61 2.31 4.05
Dividend per Share 1.35 1.98 1.93 1.75 1.58 1.44 1.3 1.2 1.1 0.94 0.86 0.78
Dividend Growth Rate 10.57% 2.59% 10.29% 10.76% 9.72% 10.77% 8.33% 9.09% 17.02% 9.3% 10.26% 18.18%
Book Value 46.75 58.77 55.96 49.91 41.97 51.11 51.79 45.08 36.55 37.1 43.6 42.46
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Discounting Cash Flows

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