Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026 (HNNAZ) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Hennessy Advisors, Inc. 4.875% Notes due 2026
HNNAZ (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 24.75 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 193.5 USD
Book value of equity invested 12.23 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 6.36 USD
Terminal stage EPS 1.59 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 7.28 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 0.366 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 175 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 223.6 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 5.03%
Terminal year's excess return 1.23 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 21.86%
Average historical Payout Ratio 232%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 79.51%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 11.58 11.89 11.89 9.25 7.82 7.12 6.97
Ending Book Value 11.89 12.23 9.25 7.82 7.12 6.97 7.28
EPS 0.92 0.33 2.6 2.02 1.71 1.56 1.52
Return on Equity 8.09% 10.7% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86% 21.86%
Dividend per Share 1.22 1.22 5.24 3.46 2.4 1.71 1.21
Payout Ratio 132.6% 369.7% 201.5% 171% 140.5% 110% 79.51%
Retained Earnings -0.3 -0.89 -2.64 -1.44 -0.692 -0.156 0.312
Equity Cost 0.582 0.598 0.598 0.465 0.393 0.358 0.35
Cost of Equity 5.03% 5.03% 5.03% 5.03% 5.03% 5.03% 5.03%
Excess Return 0.338 -0.268 2.0 1.56 1.32 1.2 1.17
Discounted Excess Return
1.91 1.41 1.14 0.985 0.918

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 10.54 9.77 7.1 4.77 6.19 7.9 7.84 11.03 20.61 14.94 14.37 11.39
Total Stockholders Equity 70.95 95.2 91.31 87.75 86.3 83.26 78.18 75.53 70.98 51.53 37.33 23.09
Return on Equity 21.86% 10.7% 8.09% 5.53% 7.43% 10.11% 10.38% 15.54% 40.01% 40.03% 62.21% 30.44%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 9.37 9.5 9.37 9.25
Payout Ratio 209.8% 369.7% 132.6% 193.7% 201.5% 201.5% 201.5% 201.5% 201.5% 201.5% 201.5% 201.5%
Shares Outstanding 7.72 7.78 7.68 7.58 7.48 7.37 7.35 7.76 7.81 7.69 7.6 8.83
Earnings per Share 1.28 0.33 0.92 0.63 0.83 1.07 1.07 1.42 2.64 1.94 1.89 1.29
Dividend per Share 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.22
Dividend Growth Rate
0% 0%
Book Value 9.29 12.23 11.89 11.58 11.53 11.3 10.63 9.74 9.09 6.7 4.91 2.62
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Discounting Cash Flows

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