Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Harley-Davidson, Inc.
HOG (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 25.385 USD

+
* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 32.22 USD
Book value of equity invested 25.67 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 4.2 USD
Terminal stage EPS 0.381 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 1.61 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 0.164 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 2.35 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 3.81 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 10.17%
Terminal year's excess return 0.217 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 23.61%
Average historical Payout Ratio 498.4%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 81.02%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 22.85 24.09 24.09 6.18 2.8 1.82 1.55
Ending Book Value 24.09 25.67 6.18 2.8 1.82 1.55 1.61
EPS 3.46 2.7 5.69 1.46 0.662 0.43 0.365
Return on Equity 14% 11.17% 23.61% 23.61% 23.61% 23.61% 23.61%
Dividend per Share 0.69 0.705 23.59 4.83 1.64 0.708 0.296
Payout Ratio 19.94% 26.11% 414.9% 331.4% 248% 164.5% 81.02%
Retained Earnings 2.77 2.0 -17.91 -3.38 -0.979 -0.278 0.069
Equity Cost 2.32 2.45 2.45 0.628 0.285 0.185 0.157
Cost of Equity 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17% 10.17%
Excess Return 1.14 0.25 3.24 0.83 0.377 0.245 0.208
Discounted Excess Return
2.94 0.684 0.282 0.166 0.128

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 529.9 353.5 455.4 706.6 741.4 650 1.3 423.6 531.5 521.8 692.2 752.2
Total Stockholders Equity 2,360 3,182 3,166 3,253 2,904 2,553 1,723 1,804 1,774 1,844 1,920 1,840
Return on Equity 23.61% 11.17% 14% 24.34% 29.04% 37.73% 0.072% 23.88% 28.82% 27.17% 37.62% 25.86%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 160 87.38 90.7 93.97 93.25 92.25 67.4 235.6 245.2 251.1 251.5 251.3
Payout Ratio 498.3% 26.11% 19.94% 13.31% 12.57% 14.18% 5,176% 55.56% 46.11% 48.18% 36.36% 33.42%
Shares Outstanding 157.3 123.9 131.4 142.4 148 153.7 153.2 157.1 165.7 172 179.7 202.7
Earnings per Share 3.35 2.7 3.46 4.96 5.01 4.23 0.008 2.7 3.21 3.03 3.85 3.71
Dividend per Share 0.982 0.705 0.69 0.66 0.63 0.6 0.44 1.5 1.48 1.46 1.4 1.24
Dividend Growth Rate 1.35% 2.17% 4.54% 4.76% 5% 36.36% -70.67% 1.35% 1.37% 4.29% 12.9% 12.73%
Book Value 15.71 25.67 24.09 22.85 19.62 16.61 11.25 11.49 10.71 10.72 10.69 9.08
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Discounting Cash Flows

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