HSBC Holdings plc (HSBC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
HSBC
HSBC Holdings plc
HSBC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

Read More

↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

The estimated number of years during which the company is expected to experience high growth. After this period, the company will transition to a stable growth phase.

Stable Return On Equity

Stable Return on Equity

The stable Return On Equity (ROE) estimated after the last projected period.

Stable Growth In Perpetuity

Stable Growth in Perpetuity

The stable rate at which the company's book value is assumed to grow in perpetuity after the last projected period.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 68.04 USD
Book value of equity invested 53.69 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 1.46 USD
Terminal stage EPS 3.76 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 51.6 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 3.38 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 12.89 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 17.71 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 6.56%
Terminal year's excess return 0.379 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 7.29%
Average historical Payout Ratio 137.7%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 39.39%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.42%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values are in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 47.09 47.83 47.83 47.2 47.25 47.98 49.42
Ending Book Value 47.83 53.69 47.2 47.25 47.98 49.42 51.6
EPS 6.25 5.45 3.49 3.44 3.45 3.5 3.6
Return on Equity 12.94% 11.2% 7.29% 7.29% 7.29% 7.29% 7.29%
Dividend per Share 4.08 3.28 4.12 3.39 2.71 2.07 1.42
Payout Ratio 65.28% 60.13% 118.1% 98.39% 78.73% 59.06% 39.39%
Retained Earnings 2.17 2.17 -0.63 0.055 0.733 1.43 2.18
Equity Cost 3.09 3.14 3.14 3.1 3.1 3.15 3.24
Cost of Equity 6.56% 6.56% 6.56% 6.56% 6.56% 6.56% 6.56%
Excess Return 3.16 2.32 0.351 0.346 0.347 0.352 0.363
Discounted Excess Return
0.329 0.305 0.287 0.273 0.264

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 13,713 20,719 23,979 23,533 15,559 13,917 5,229 7,383 13,727 10,798 2,479 13,522
Total Stockholders Equity 187,963 190,810 184,973 185,329 187,484 198,250 196,443 183,955 186,253 190,250 175,386 188,460
Return on Equity 7.29% 11.2% 12.94% 12.55% 7.85% 7.08% 2.84% 3.96% 7.22% 6.16% 1.31% 7.1%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 9,280 11,656 15,780 10,350 5,320 4,403 4,235 10,240 10,147 10,186 10,074 9,690
Payout Ratio 137.7% 60.13% 65.28% 46.14% 35.73% 35.16% 110.5% 169.3% 80.95% 106.2% 728.6% 76.92%
Shares Outstanding 3,930 3,554 3,868 3,935 3,970 4,039 4,034 4,032 3,979 3,994 3,951 3,876
Earnings per Share 3.26 5.45 6.25 5.7 3.75 3.1 0.95 1.5 3.15 2.4 0.35 3.25
Dividend per Share 2.38 3.28 4.08 2.63 1.34 1.09 1.05 2.54 2.55 2.55 2.55 2.5
Dividend Growth Rate 11.5% -19.61% 55.13% 96.27% 22.94% 3.81% -58.66% -0.392% 0% 0% 2% 2.04%
Book Value 47.88 53.69 47.83 47.09 47.23 49.08 48.7 45.63 46.81 47.63 44.39 48.62
discounting cash flows home logo

Discounting Cash Flows

Are you finding our services helpful? Review us on trustpilot logo Trustpilot
Have a question? Contact us