Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Hercules Capital, Inc.
HTGC (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 25.79 USD
Book value of equity invested 11.67 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 2.22 USD
Terminal stage EPS 1.95 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 16.15 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 1.3 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 11.91 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 17.54 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 8.05%
Terminal year's excess return 0.651 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 12.08%
Average historical Payout Ratio 39.77%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 64.07%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.34%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 12.51 12.35 12.35 13.18 13.98 14.75 15.48
Ending Book Value 12.35 11.67 13.18 13.98 14.75 15.48 16.15
EPS 1.63 -0.24 1.49 1.59 1.69 1.78 1.87
Return on Equity 14.43% -4.57% 12.08% 12.08% 12.08% 12.08% 12.08%
Dividend per Share 1.92 1.9 0.666 0.788 0.918 1.06 1.2
Payout Ratio 117.8% -791.7% 44.63% 49.49% 54.35% 59.21% 64.07%
Retained Earnings -0.29 -2.14 0.826 0.804 0.771 0.727 0.672
Equity Cost 1.01 0.994 0.994 1.06 1.13 1.19 1.25
Cost of Equity 8.05% 8.05% 8.05% 8.05% 8.05% 8.05% 8.05%
Excess Return 0.623 -1.23 0.498 0.531 0.563 0.594 0.624
Discounted Excess Return
0.461 0.455 0.447 0.436 0.423

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 136.9 -90.96 260.1 337.5 156.8 174.2 227.3 173.6 76.5 79 68.7 42.92
Total Stockholders Equity 1,294 2,001 1,990 1,803 1,401 1,309 1,292 1,133 955.4 841 787.9 717.1
Return on Equity 12.08% -4.57% 14.43% 24.08% 11.99% 13.48% 20.06% 18.17% 9.1% 10.03% 9.58% 6.51%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 183.3 325.8 309.3 273.8 246.6 177.9 154.5 134.5 114.6 101.5 91.45 86.15
Payout Ratio 39.77% -791.7% 117.8% 81.9% 157.6% 103.3% 68.32% 77.78% 150% 129.5% 136.3% 206.7%
Shares Outstanding 113.3 171.5 161.1 144.1 125.2 114.7 112 101.1 90.93 82.52 73.75 69.48
Earnings per Share 1.23 -0.24 1.63 2.32 1.25 1.5 2.02 1.71 0.84 0.95 0.91 0.6
Dividend per Share 1.54 1.9 1.92 1.9 1.97 1.55 1.38 1.33 1.26 1.23 1.24 1.24
Dividend Growth Rate 5.2% -1.04% 1.05% -3.55% 27.1% 12.32% 3.76% 5.56% 2.44% -0.806% 0% 0%
Book Value 11.23 11.67 12.35 12.51 11.19 11.4 11.53 11.2 10.51 10.19 10.68 10.32
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Discounting Cash Flows

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