MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Perpetual Growth - Discounting Cash Flows
MELI
MercadoLibre, Inc.
MELI (NASDAQ)

Fair Value per Share

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm (Perpetual Growth)

This model estimates the fair value of a share by discounting projected Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), also known as Unlevered Free Cash Flow.

The terminal value assumes cashflow grows at a constant Growth in Perpetuity rate forever:

Terminal Enterprise Value = FCFF_(final forecast year) × (1 + Growth in Perpetuity) / (Discount Rate - Growth in Perpetuity)

The terminal value and projected FCFF are discounted to present value using WACC. Equity value is obtained by adjusting enterprise value for net debt:

Equity Value = Cumulative Present Value of FCFF + Present Value of Terminal EV + Cash and Short Term InvestmentsTotal Debt

Fair Value per Share = Equity Value ÷ Shares Outstanding

This model was inspired by Prof. Aswath Damodaran's spreadsheet ⬇️fcff2st.xls

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran's Guide to Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Discount Rate (WACC)

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Equity Weight * Cost of Equity + Debt Weight * Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate)

Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.

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Cost of Equity

Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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Cost of Debt

Cost of Debt = Interest Expense / Total Debt

The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.

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Equity & Debt Weights

Debt Weight = Total Debt / (Market Capitalization + Total Debt) = 1 - Equity Weight

The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).


Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.

↳ Beta

Beta

Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Equity Risk Premium

Equity Risk Premium

The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.

↳ Tax Rate

Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).

This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.

Discount Rate

Discount Rate =
Debt Weight × Cost of Debt × (1 − Tax Rate)
+ Equity Weight × Cost of Equity

Historical Years

Historical Years

Number of trailing fiscal years used to compute historical averages/trends that feed the model’s default forecast assumptions (e.g., margins and growth).

WACC Calculation

Beta 1.53
* Equity Risk Premium 4.46%
+ Risk Free Rate 4.25%
= Cost of Equity 11.06%
* Equity Weight 88.12%
+ Cost of Debt 1.3%
* Debt Weight 11.88%
* (1 - Tax Rate) 83.04%
= WACC (Discount Rate) 9.88%

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Mar 20
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
Revenue 23,418 28,893 28,893 20,777 15,107
Revenue Growth Rate 29.18% 0% 39.06% 37.53% 40.14%
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) 2,810 3,201 3,201 2,631 2,207
EBIT Margin 12.36% 11.08% 11.08% 12.66% 14.61%
Income Tax Expense 587.5 415 845 521 569
Income Tax Rate 26.17% 16.96% 29.73% 21.42% 36.57%
Depreciation and Amortization (D&A) 632.5 818 571 617 524
D&A Margin 2.81% 2.83% 1.98% 2.97% 3.47%
Capital Expenditure (CapEx) -988 -1,240 -1,343 -860 -509
CapEx Margin -4.11% -4.29% -4.65% -4.14% -3.37%
Change in Working Capital 3,666 5,240 4,436 3,191 1,795
Change in WC Margin 15.18% 18.14% 15.35% 15.36% 11.88%
Free Cashflow to Firm (FCFF) 5,404 7,476 5,913 5,015 3,210
FCFF Margin 22.94% 25.88% 20.47% 24.14% 21.25%

Forecast Assumptions

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

Number of years with explicit projections before the model shifts to the terminal (perpetuity) period.

Growth in Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

Long-run constant growth rate used to calculate terminal value after the forecast period.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Annual % increase in revenue during the forecast period.

EBIT Margin

EBIT Margin

EBIT as a % of revenue; reflects operating profitability and business mix.

Change in Working Capital Margin

Change in Working Capital Margin

Annual change in net working capital as a % of revenue; captures cash tied up (or released) in receivables, inventory, and payables.

  • A negative value represents cash tied up in operations (reduces FCFF).
  • A positive value represents a release of working capital (increases FCFF).
Depreciation and Amortization Margin

Depreciation and Amortization Margin

D&A as a % of revenue; a non-cash expense added back in cash flow, often linked to the asset base.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

CapEx as a % of revenue; cash reinvestment required to maintain and grow operations.

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31

Fair Value Calculation

Exit Free Cashflow to Firm (FCFF) 25.1 Bil. USD
Terminal Enterprise Value (EV) 348.8 Bil. USD
Terminal Value Discount Factor 60.14%
Present Value of Terminal EV 217.8 Bil. USD
+ Cumulative Present Value of FCFF 58.18 Bil. USD
+ Cash and Short Term Investments 6.3 Bil. USD
- Total Debt 11.39 Bil. USD
= Equity Value 270.9 Bil. USD
/ Shares Outstanding 50.7 Mil.
= Fair Value per Share 5.34 Thou. USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
Revenue 37,325 48,218 62,289 80,467 103,951
Revenue Growth Rate 29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18% 29.18%
Free Cashflow to Firm (FCFF) 9,012 11,641 15,039 19,428 25,097
FCFF Margin 24.14% 24.14% 24.14% 24.14% 24.14%
Present Value of FCFF 8,202 9,643 11,338 13,330 15,673
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Discounting Cash Flows

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