Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Discounted Free Cash Flow - Perpetuity

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

STLD (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
Steel Dynamics, Inc. Discounted Free Cash Flow - Perpetuity

"""
    Model: Discounted Free Cash Flow - Perpetuity

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

See our [GitHub Model Documentation](https://github.com/DiscountingCashFlows/Documentation/blob/main/models-documentation/discounted-free-cash-flow.md#discounted-free-cash-flow-model-source-code)
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "%tax_rate": None,
        "%growth_in_perpetuity": "2.5%",
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "%operating_cash_flow_margin": None,
        "%capital_expenditure_margin": None,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": [
            "beta",
            "%risk_free_rate",
            "%market_premium",
            "%tax_rate"
        ]
    }]
})

# WACC Calculation
risk_free_rate = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate")
beta = assumptions.get("beta")
market_premium = assumptions.get("%market_premium")
cost_of_equity = risk_free_rate + beta * market_premium
cost_of_debt = data.get("income:interestExpense / balance:totalDebt")
if cost_of_debt is None:
    # Use the 10-year Treasury yield instead
    cost_of_debt = data.get("treasury:year10")

tax_rate = data.get("income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax")
if tax_rate is None or tax_rate < 0:
    # Fall back to the statutory corporate rate
    tax_rate = data.get("risk:corporateTaxRate")
assumptions.set("%tax_rate", tax_rate)

market_cap = data.get("profile:price * income:weightedAverageShsOut")
debt_weight = data.get(f"balance:totalDebt / ({market_cap} + balance:totalDebt)")
if debt_weight is None:
    # Assume zero leverage if missing
    debt_weight = 0

equity_weight = 1 - debt_weight
wacc = debt_weight * cost_of_debt * (1 - assumptions.get("%tax_rate")) + equity_weight * cost_of_equity

# Set the discount rate to the WACC
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", wacc)

data.compute({
    "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "-1 * flow:capitalExpenditure",
    "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "positiveCapitalExpenditure / income:revenue",
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operatingMargin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": "flow:freeCashFlow",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average("%revenueGrowthRate"))
# Limit revenue growth rate between 0% and 25%
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

average_operating_cash_flow_margin = data.average("%operatingCashFlowMargin")
assumptions.set("%operating_cash_flow_margin", average_operating_cash_flow_margin)
# Limit OCF range from 0 to 100% (all revenue converted to OCF)
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%operating_cash_flow_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

average_capital_expenditure_margin = data.average("%capitalExpenditureMargin")
assumptions.set("%capital_expenditure_margin", average_capital_expenditure_margin)

# Limit CapEx range from 0 to 90% of OCF Margin
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%capital_expenditure_margin",
    low=0,
    high=assumptions.get("%operating_cash_flow_margin")*.9
)

data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "flow:operatingCashFlow": f"""
        income:revenue * 
        {assumptions.get('%operating_cash_flow_margin')}
    """,
    "computedCapitalExpenditure": f"""
        income:revenue * 
        {assumptions.get('%capital_expenditure_margin')}
    """,
    "flow:freeCashFlow": "flow:operatingCashFlow - computedCapitalExpenditure",
    "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "flow:operatingCashFlow - flow:freeCashFlow",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": f"""
        function:discount:flow:freeCashFlow 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')}
        continuous:true
    """,
    # Informational computations
    "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "positiveCapitalExpenditure / income:revenue",
    "%freeCashFlowMargin": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "#compoundedDiscountRate": f"""
        function:compound:1
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    "%compoundedDiscountRate": "#compoundedDiscountRate - 1",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Calculating the Terminal Value
# TV = FCF * (1 + Growth in Perpetuity) / (Discount Rate - Growth in Perpetuity)
discount_rate = assumptions.get("%discount_rate")
growth_in_perpetuity = assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity")
end_year = assumptions.get("projection_years")
terminal_value = data.get(f"""
    flow:freeCashFlow:{end_year} *
    (1 + {growth_in_perpetuity}) / ({discount_rate} - {growth_in_perpetuity})
""")

# Discount the terminal value into the present
tv_discount_rate = (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get('projection_years')
discounted_terminal_value = terminal_value / tv_discount_rate

# Get the sum between current date and projection years
discounted_free_cash_flow_sum = data.sum("discountedFreeCashFlow:1->*")

# Add all Discounted FCFs and the Discounted Terminal Value to calculate the enterprise value
enterprise_value = discounted_terminal_value + discounted_free_cash_flow_sum

# Equity value is calculated by adding cash and subtracting total debt from the enterprise value
equity_value = data.get(f"{enterprise_value} + balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments -  balance:totalDebt")

stock_value = equity_value / data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")

model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": '$'
})

fcf_5y_cagr = data.cagr(f"flow:freeCashFlow:-1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")
revenue_5y_cagr = data.cagr(f"income:revenue:-1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

model.render_results([
    [terminal_value, "Terminal Value", "$"],
    [discounted_terminal_value, "Discounted Terminal Value", "$"],
    [discounted_free_cash_flow_sum, "Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow", "$"],
    [enterprise_value, "Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:cashAndCashEquivalents"), "Cash and Equivalents", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:totalDebt"), "Total Debt", "$"],
    [equity_value, "Equity Value", "$"],
    [data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut"), "Shares Outstanding", "$"],
    [stock_value, "Estimated Value per Share", "$"],
    [data.get("treasury:year10"), "Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note", "%"],
    [average_operating_cash_flow_margin, "Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin", "%"],
    [average_capital_expenditure_margin, "Average Capital Expenditure Margin", "%"],
    [cost_of_equity, "Cost of Equity", "%"],
    [equity_weight, "Equity Weight", "%"],
    [cost_of_debt, "Cost of Debt", "%"],
    [debt_weight, "Debt Weight", "%"],
    [revenue_5y_cagr, "Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR", "%"],
    [fcf_5y_cagr, "Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR", "%"],
])

model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "flow:operatingCashFlow",
            "flow:freeCashFlow"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": [
            "positiveCapitalExpenditure",
            "discountedFreeCashFlow"
        ],
        "width": "full"
    },
})

# Forecast table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "Operating Cash Flow Margin",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "Capital Expenditure Margin",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowMargin": "Free Cash Flow Margin",
        "%compoundedDiscountRate": "Compounded Discount Rate",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Forecast Data",
        "order": "ascending",
        "include_ltm": False,
        "number_format": "M",
        "width": "full"
    },
})

# Historical table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operatingMargin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Cash from Operating Activities",
        "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "Cash from Operating Activities Margin",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "Capital Expenditure Margin",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Data",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`)
        
        Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Equity
        
        `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`
        
        The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Debt
        
        `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt`
        
        The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofdebt.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Equity & Debt Weights
        
        `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight`
        
        The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).
        
        ---
        
        ### Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta
        
        Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate
        
        The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%tax_rate": r"""
        ## Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        This is the company’s **effective tax rate**, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).
        
        This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.
        
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` =  
        `Debt Weight` × `Cost of Debt` × (1 − `Tax Rate`)  
        + `Equity Weight` × `Cost of Equity`
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium
        
        The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.
    """,

"%growth_in_perpetuity": r"""
        ## Growth in Perpetuity
        
        The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years
        
        The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years
        
        The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate
        
        The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%operating_cash_flow_margin": r"""
        ## Operating Cash Flow Margin
        
        `Projected Operating Cash Flow` = `Projected Revenue` * `Operating Cash Flow Margin`
        
        This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.
    """,

"%capital_expenditure_margin": r"""
        ## Capital Expenditure Margin
        
        `Projected Free Cash Flow` = `Projected Operating Cash Flow` - `Projected Revenue` * `Capital Expenditure Margin`
        
        This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.
    """,
})

print(f"End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

See our GitHub Model Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`) Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt. Read More Cost of Equity `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More Cost of Debt `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt` The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans. Read More Equity & Debt Weights `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight` The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt). Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium Market Premium The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.	%
↳ Tax Rate Tax Rate Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items). This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible. Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Debt Weight` × `Cost of Debt` × (1 − `Tax Rate`) + `Equity Weight` × `Cost of Equity`	%
Growth In Perpetuity Growth In Perpetuity Growth in Perpetuity The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
Historical Years Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Projection Years Projection Years Projection Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Operating Cash Flow Margin Operating Cash Flow Margin Operating Cash Flow Margin `Projected Operating Cash Flow` = `Projected Revenue` * `Operating Cash Flow Margin` This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.	%
Capital Expenditure Margin Capital Expenditure Margin Capital Expenditure Margin `Projected Free Cash Flow` = `Projected Operating Cash Flow` - `Projected Revenue` * `Capital Expenditure Margin` This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.	%

Results
Terminal Value	30.1 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value	19.46 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow	6.14 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value	25.6 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents	769.9 Mil. USD
Total Debt	4.21 Bil. USD
Equity Value	22.16 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	145.6 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share	152.2 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note	4.12%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin	11.96%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin	5.69%
Cost of Equity	10.34%
Equity Weight	86.31%
Cost of Debt	1.66%
Debt Weight	13.69%
Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR	11.21%
Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR	31.07%

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Historical Values", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 7777109000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 9538797000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 11821839000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 10464991000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 9601482000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 18408850000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 22260774000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 18795316000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 17540390000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 18176581000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 20214175730, "oy": 20214175730, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 22480184829, "oy": 22480184829, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 25000213548, "oy": 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"2026-12-31", "y": 2417615417, "oy": 2417615417, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 66.79, "og": 66.79}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 2688630105, "oy": 2688630105, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 2990025540, "oy": 2990025540, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 3325207403, "oy": 3325207403, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 3697963153, "oy": 3697963153, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "flow:freeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 654609000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 574671000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 1176079000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 944345000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": -211023000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 1197897000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 3551501000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 1862023000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": -23503000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 501509000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 1268237385, "oy": 1268237385, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 152.9, "og": 152.9}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 1410406796, "oy": 1410406796, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 1568513398, "oy": 1568513398, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 1744343749, "oy": 1744343749, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 1939884684, "oy": 1939884684, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 11.21, "og": 11.21}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Capital Expenditure", "mappingKey": "positiveCapitalExpenditure", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 198160000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 164935000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 239390000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 451945000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 1198055000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 1006239000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 908902000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 1657905000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 1868006000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 948025000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 1149378032}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 1278223309}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 1421512142}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 1580863653}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 1758078469}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}, {"label": "Discounted Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "discountedFreeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 654609000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 574671000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 1176079000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 944345000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": -211023000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 1197897000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 3551501000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 1862023000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": -23503000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 501509000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 1181690206}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 1204466880}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 1227389441}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 1251046951}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 1275160452}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2026-12-31": 32, "2027-12-31": 33, "2028-12-31": 34, "2029-12-31": 35, "2030-12-31": 36}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-12-31	2027-12-31	2028-12-31	2029-12-31	2030-12-31

↳ Growth Rate

Forecast Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Dec 31	2026 Dec 31	2027 Dec 31	2028 Dec 31	2029 Dec 31	2030 Dec 31
Revenue	18,177	20,214	22,480	25,000	27,803	30,919
Revenue Growth Rate	3.63%	11.21%	11.21%	11.21%	11.21%	11.21%
Operating Cash Flow	1,450	2,418	2,689	2,990	3,325	3,698
Operating Cash Flow Margin	7.98%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%
Capital Expenditure	948	1,149	1,278	1,422	1,581	1,758
Capital Expenditure Margin	5.22%	5.69%	5.69%	5.69%	5.69%	5.69%
Free Cash Flow	501.5	1,268	1,410	1,569	1,744	1,940
Free Cash Flow Margin	2.76%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%
Compounded Discount Rate		7.32%	17.1%	27.79%	39.43%	52.13%
Discounted Free Cash Flow	501.5	1,182	1,204	1,227	1,251	1,275

Historical Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 10	2025 Dec 31	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31
Revenue	14,778	18,177	18,177	17,540	18,795	22,261	18,409	9,601	10,465	11,822	9,539	7,777
Revenue Growth Rate	11.21%	0%	3.63%	-6.68%	-15.57%	20.92%	91.73%	-8.25%	-11.48%	23.93%	22.65%	2.41%
Cost of Revenue	11,934	15,792	15,812	14,738	14,749	16,143	13,046	8,167	8,934	9,499	7,957	6,442
Gross Profit	2,844	2,385	2,364	2,803	4,046	6,118	5,362	1,435	1,531	2,323	1,582	1,335
Gross Margin	18.47%	13.12%	13.01%	15.98%	21.53%	27.48%	29.13%	14.94%	14.63%	19.65%	16.59%	17.16%
Operating Income	2,072	1,476	1,476	1,943	3,151	5,092	4,301	847.1	986.9	1,722	1,067	728
Operating Margin	13.06%	8.12%	8.12%	11.08%	16.77%	22.87%	23.36%	8.82%	9.43%	14.57%	11.18%	9.36%
Net Income	1,556	1,186	1,186	1,537	2,451	3,863	3,214	550.8	671.1	1,258	812.7	382.1
Net Margin	9.63%	6.52%	6.52%	8.76%	13.04%	17.35%	17.46%	5.74%	6.41%	10.64%	8.52%	4.91%
Cash from Operating Activities	1,847	1,450	1,450	1,845	3,520	4,460	2,204	987	1,396	1,415	739.6	852.8
Cash from Operating Activities Margin	11.96%	7.98%	7.98%	10.52%	18.73%	20.04%	11.97%	10.28%	13.34%	11.97%	7.75%	10.97%
Capital Expenditure	871.8	948	948	1,868	1,658	908.9	1,006	1,198	451.9	239.4	164.9	198.2
Capital Expenditure Margin	5.69%	5.22%	5.22%	10.65%	8.82%	4.08%	5.47%	12.48%	4.32%	2.02%	1.73%	2.55%
Free Cash Flow	975.4	501.5	501.5	-23.5	1,862	3,552	1,198	-211	944.3	1,176	574.7	654.6

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Steel Dynamics, Inc. Discounted Free Cash Flow - Perpetuity

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Cost of Equity

Cost of Debt

Equity & Debt Weights

Tax Rate

Beta

Beta

Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

Market Premium

Market Premium

Tax Rate

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

Historical Years

Historical Years

Projection Years

Projection Years

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Results

Historical Values

Forecast Data

Historical Data

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Perpetual Growth

Earnings Power Value

Simple Dividend Discount Model

Simple Excess Return Model

Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model

Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Exit Multiple

Discounted Future Market Cap

Peter Lynch Fair Value

Altman Z-Score

Beneish M-Score

Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)

Margin Analysis

Piotroski F-Score

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Shiller PE (CAPE) Ratio

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)