Steel Dynamics, Inc. (STLD) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow

Steel Dynamics, Inc.

STLD (NASDAQ)

(%)

Repository Valuation
Nathan Winklepleck, CFA
Steel Dynamics, Inc. Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow

"""
    Model: Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow
    
    This model was built for Nathan Winklepleck (CFA)
    Nathan's YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/NathanWinklepleckCFA
"""

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. 
The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out [Nathan's YouTube Channel](https://www.youtube.com/c/NathanWinklepleckCFA)
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    # Set the Discount Rate to 10Y Treasury Yield + 4%
    "%discount_rate": data.get("treasury:year10") + 0.04,
    "%growth_in_perpetuity": data.get("treasury:year10"),
    "historical_years": 10,
    "projection_years": 10,
    "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
    "%operating_cash_flow_margin": None,
    "%capital_expenditure_margin": None,
})

data.compute({
    "index": -1,
    "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "flow:capitalExpenditure / income:revenue",
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%operatingMargin": "income:operatingIncome / income:revenue",
    "%netMargin": "income:netIncome / income:revenue",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": "flow:freeCashFlow",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
})

average_revenue_growth_rate = data.average(f"%revenueGrowthRate:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")
assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", average_revenue_growth_rate)

average_operating_cash_flow_margin = data.average(f"%operatingCashFlowMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")
assumptions.set("%operating_cash_flow_margin", average_operating_cash_flow_margin)

average_capital_expenditure_margin = data.average(f"%capitalExpenditureMargin:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")
assumptions.set("%capital_expenditure_margin", average_capital_expenditure_margin)

revenue_growth_decrease_rate = (assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate') - assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity")) / (assumptions.get("projection_years") - 1)

data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"""
        function:linear_regression:income:revenue 
        start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}
    """,
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

data.compute({
    "index": "1 + index:-1",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": f"{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} - index * {revenue_growth_decrease_rate}",
    "income:revenue": "income:revenue:-1 * (1 + %revenueGrowthRate)",
    "flow:operatingCashFlow": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%operating_cash_flow_margin')}",
    "computedCapitalExpenditure": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%capital_expenditure_margin')}",
    "flow:freeCashFlow": "flow:operatingCashFlow + computedCapitalExpenditure",
    "flow:capitalExpenditure": "flow:freeCashFlow - flow:operatingCashFlow",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": f"""
        function:discount:flow:freeCashFlow 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')}
        continuous:true
    """,
    # Informational computations
    "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "flow:capitalExpenditure / income:revenue",
    "%freeCashFlowMargin": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:revenue",
    "#compoundedDiscountRate": f"""
        function:compound:1
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    "%compoundedDiscountRate": "#compoundedDiscountRate - 1",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Calculating the Terminal Value
# TV = FCF * (1 + Growth in Perpetuity) / (Discount Rate - Growth in Perpetuity)
terminal_value = \
    data.get(f"flow:freeCashFlow:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}") * \
    (1 + assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity")) / \
    (assumptions.get("%discount_rate") - assumptions.get("%growth_in_perpetuity"))

# Discount the terminal value into the present
tv_discount_rate = (1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get('projection_years')
discounted_terminal_value = terminal_value / tv_discount_rate

# Get the sum between current date and projection years
discounted_free_cash_flow_sum = data.sum("discountedFreeCashFlow:1->*")

# Add all Discounted FCFs and the Discounted Terminal Value to calculate the enterprise value
enterprise_value = discounted_terminal_value + discounted_free_cash_flow_sum

# Equity value is calculated by adding cash and subtracting total debt from the enterprise value
equity_value = enterprise_value + data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments") - \
               data.get("balance:totalDebt")

stock_value = equity_value / data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")

model.set_final_value({
    "value": stock_value,
    "units": '$'
})

model.render_results([
    [terminal_value, "Terminal Value", "$"],
    [discounted_terminal_value, "Discounted Terminal Value", "$"],
    [discounted_free_cash_flow_sum, "Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow", "$"],
    [enterprise_value, "Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:cashAndCashEquivalents"), "Cash and Equivalents", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:totalDebt"), "Total Debt", "$"],
    [equity_value, "Equity Value", "$"],
    [data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut"), "Shares Outstanding", "$"],
    [stock_value, "Estimated Value per Share", "$"],
    [data.get("treasury:year10"), "Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note", "%"],
    [average_operating_cash_flow_margin, "Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin", "%"],
    [average_capital_expenditure_margin, "Average Capital Expenditure Margin", "%"],
])

model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue Line",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow"
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Values",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "flow:operatingCashFlow",
            "flow:freeCashFlow"
        ],
        "hidden_keys": [
            "flow:capitalExpenditure",
            "linearRegressionRevenue",
            "discountedFreeCashFlow"
        ],
        "number_format": "M",
        "width": "full"
    },
})

# Forecast table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "Operating Cash Flow Margin",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureMargin": "Capital Expenditure Margin",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowMargin": "Free Cash Flow Margin",
        "%compoundedDiscountRate": "Compounded Discount Rate",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": 1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Forecast Data",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "width": "full"
    },
})

# Historical table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:operatingIncome": "Operating Income",
        "%operatingMargin": "Operating Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netMargin": "Net Margin",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Cash from Operating Activities",
        "%operatingCashFlowMargin": "Cash from Operating Activities Margin",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Data",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M"
    },
})

assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` = `10 Year Treasury Note Yield` + `4%`
    """,

"%growth_in_perpetuity": r"""
        ## Growth in Perpetuity
        
        The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years
        
        The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years
        
        The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate
        
        The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"%operating_cash_flow_margin": r"""
        ## Operating Cash Flow Margin
        
        `Projected Operating Cash Flow` = `Projected Revenue` * `Operating Cash Flow Margin`
        
        This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.
    """,

"%capital_expenditure_margin": r"""
        ## Capital Expenditure Margin
        
        `Projected Free Cash Flow` = `Projected Operating Cash Flow` - `Projected Revenue` * `Capital Expenditure Margin`
        
        This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.
    """,
})

print(f"End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

Check out Nathan's YouTube Channel

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `10 Year Treasury Note Yield` + `4%`	%
Growth In Perpetuity Growth In Perpetuity Growth in Perpetuity The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
Historical Years Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Projection Years Projection Years Projection Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Operating Cash Flow Margin Operating Cash Flow Margin Operating Cash Flow Margin `Projected Operating Cash Flow` = `Projected Revenue` * `Operating Cash Flow Margin` This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.	%
Capital Expenditure Margin Capital Expenditure Margin Capital Expenditure Margin `Projected Free Cash Flow` = `Projected Operating Cash Flow` - `Projected Revenue` * `Capital Expenditure Margin` This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.	%

Results
Terminal Value	61.99 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value	28.4 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow	12 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value	40.4 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents	769.9 Mil. USD
Total Debt	4.21 Bil. USD
Equity Value	36.96 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	145.6 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share	253.8 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note	4.12%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin	11.96%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin	-5.69%

Historical Values

Monetary values in USD

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"x": "2018-12-31", "y": 10973938642}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 12359808345}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 13745678048}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 15131547751}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 16517417454}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 17903287157}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 19289156860}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 20675026563}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 22060896266}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 23446765969}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 24832635672}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 26218505375}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 27604375078}, {"l": "2031", "x": "2031-12-31", "y": 28990244781}, {"l": "2032", "x": "2032-12-31", "y": 30376114484}, {"l": "2033", "x": "2033-12-31", "y": 31761984187}, {"l": "2034", "x": "2034-12-31", "y": 33147853890}, {"l": "2035", "x": "2035-12-31", "y": 34533723593}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}, {"label": "Discounted Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "discountedFreeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 654609000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 574671000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 1176079000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 944345000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": -211023000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 1197897000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 3551501000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 1862023000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": -23503000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 501509000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 1190430782}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 1215778879}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 1232544716}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 1240828560}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 1240127224}, {"l": "2031", "x": "2031-12-31", "y": 1230390541}, {"l": "2032", "x": "2032-12-31", "y": 1211506340}, {"l": "2033", "x": "2033-12-31", "y": 1184339952}, {"l": "2034", "x": "2034-12-31", "y": 1149153464}, {"l": "2035", "x": "2035-12-31", "y": 1106639462}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2026-12-31": 32, "2027-12-31": 33, "2028-12-31": 34, "2029-12-31": 35, "2030-12-31": 36, "2031-12-31": 37, "2032-12-31": 38, "2033-12-31": 39, "2034-12-31": 40, "2035-12-31": 41}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-12-31	2027-12-31	2028-12-31	2029-12-31	2030-12-31	2031-12-31	2032-12-31	2033-12-31	2034-12-31	2035-12-31

↳ Growth Rate

Forecast Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2026 Dec 31	2027 Dec 31	2028 Dec 31	2029 Dec 31	2030 Dec 31	2031 Dec 31	2032 Dec 31	2033 Dec 31	2034 Dec 31	2035 Dec 31
Revenue	20,214	22,321	24,471	26,636	28,783	30,876	32,878	34,750	36,456	37,958
Revenue Growth Rate	11.21%	10.42%	9.63%	8.85%	8.06%	7.27%	6.48%	5.7%	4.91%	4.12%
Operating Cash Flow	2,418	2,670	2,927	3,186	3,442	3,693	3,932	4,156	4,360	4,540
Operating Cash Flow Margin	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%	11.96%
Capital Expenditure	-1,149	-1,269	-1,391	-1,515	-1,637	-1,756	-1,869	-1,976	-2,073	-2,158
Capital Expenditure Margin	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%	-5.69%
Free Cash Flow	1,268	1,400	1,535	1,671	1,806	1,937	2,063	2,180	2,287	2,381
Free Cash Flow Margin	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%	6.27%
Compounded Discount Rate	6.54%	15.19%	24.57%	34.68%	45.62%	57.44%	70.26%	84.09%	99.04%	115.2%
Discounted Free Cash Flow	1,190	1,216	1,233	1,241	1,240	1,230	1,212	1,184	1,149	1,107

Historical Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 10	2025 Dec 31	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31
Revenue	14,778	18,177	18,177	17,540	18,795	22,261	18,409	9,601	10,465	11,822	9,539	7,777
Revenue Growth Rate	11.21%	0%	3.63%	-6.68%	-15.57%	20.92%	91.73%	-8.25%	-11.48%	23.93%	22.65%	2.41%
Cost of Revenue	11,934	15,792	15,812	14,738	14,749	16,143	13,046	8,167	8,934	9,499	7,957	6,442
Gross Profit	2,844	2,385	2,364	2,803	4,046	6,118	5,362	1,435	1,531	2,323	1,582	1,335
Gross Margin	18.47%	13.12%	13.01%	15.98%	21.53%	27.48%	29.13%	14.94%	14.63%	19.65%	16.59%	17.16%
Operating Income	2,072	1,476	1,476	1,943	3,151	5,092	4,301	847.1	986.9	1,722	1,067	728
Operating Margin	13.06%	8.12%	8.12%	11.08%	16.77%	22.87%	23.36%	8.82%	9.43%	14.57%	11.18%	9.36%
Net Income	1,556	1,186	1,186	1,537	2,451	3,863	3,214	550.8	671.1	1,258	812.7	382.1
Net Margin	9.63%	6.52%	6.52%	8.76%	13.04%	17.35%	17.46%	5.74%	6.41%	10.64%	8.52%	4.91%
Cash from Operating Activities	1,847	1,450	1,450	1,845	3,520	4,460	2,204	987	1,396	1,415	739.6	852.8
Cash from Operating Activities Margin	11.96%	7.98%	7.98%	10.52%	18.73%	20.04%	11.97%	10.28%	13.34%	11.97%	7.75%	10.97%
Capital Expenditure	-871.8	-948	-948	-1,868	-1,658	-908.9	-1,006	-1,198	-451.9	-239.4	-164.9	-198.2
Free Cash Flow	975.4	501.5	501.5	-23.5	1,862	3,552	1,198	-211	944.3	1,176	574.7	654.6

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD