The Trade Desk, Inc. (TTD) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
TTD
The Trade Desk, Inc.
TTD (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 104 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 47.92 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 15.68 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 63.6 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 658.2 Mil. USD
Total Debt 436.3 Mil. USD
Equity Value 64.47 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 480 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 134.3 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.06%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 28.98%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -5.61%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31 2035-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
2035
Dec 31
Revenue 3,929 5,193 6,681 8,360 10,167 12,008 13,761 15,286 16,444 17,111
Revenue Growth Rate 35.67% 32.16% 28.65% 25.13% 21.62% 18.11% 14.6% 11.08% 7.57% 4.06%
Operating Cash Flow 1,139 1,505 1,936 2,423 2,946 3,480 3,988 4,430 4,765 4,959
Operating Cash Flow Margin 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98% 28.98%
Capital Expenditure -220.5 -291.4 -374.8 -469.1 -570.5 -673.8 -772.1 -857.7 -922.7 -960.1
Capital Expenditure Margin -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61% -5.61%
Free Cash Flow 918.3 1,214 1,561 1,954 2,376 2,806 3,216 3,572 3,843 3,999
Free Cash Flow Margin 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37% 23.37%
Compounded Discount Rate 6.62% 15.22% 24.53% 34.57% 45.41% 57.13% 69.84% 83.52% 98.32% 114.3%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 861.2 1,053 1,254 1,452 1,634 1,786 1,893 1,946 1,938 1,866

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Mar 04
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
Revenue 1,404 2,896 2,896 2,445 1,946 1,578 1,196 836 661.1 477.3 308.2 202.9
Revenue Growth Rate 35.67% 0% 18.47% 25.63% 23.34% 31.87% 43.11% 26.47% 38.5% 54.86% 51.89% 78.26%
Cost of Revenue 284.9 619.1 619.1 472 365.6 281.1 221.6 178.8 156.2 114.1 66.23 39.88
Gross Profit 1,119 2,277 2,277 1,973 1,581 1,297 974.9 657.2 504.9 363.2 242 163.1
Gross Margin 79.34% 78.63% 78.63% 80.69% 81.21% 82.18% 81.48% 78.61% 76.37% 76.09% 78.51% 80.35%
Operating Income 230.5 589.3 589.3 427.2 200.5 113.7 124.8 144.2 112.2 107.3 69.36 57.52
Operating Margin 17.6% 20.35% 20.35% 17.47% 10.3% 7.2% 10.43% 17.25% 16.97% 22.49% 22.5% 28.34%
Net Income 196.3 443.3 443.3 393.1 178.9 53.38 137.8 242.3 108.3 88.14 50.8 20.48
Net Margin 14.65% 15.31% 15.31% 16.08% 9.2% 3.38% 11.51% 28.98% 16.39% 18.47% 16.48% 10.09%
Cash from Operating Activities 446.2 992.7 992.7 739.5 598.3 548.7 378.5 405.1 60.2 86.6 31.22 75.03
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 28.98% 34.28% 34.28% 30.25% 30.74% 34.78% 31.64% 48.45% 9.11% 18.14% 10.13% 36.97%
Capital Expenditure -80.41 -205.4 -197 -107.1 -55.02 -91.89 -59.97 -80.11 -40.6 -25.19 -13.06 -9.22
Free Cash Flow 365.8 787.3 795.7 632.4 543.3 456.8 318.5 325 19.6 61.41 18.16 65.81
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Discounting Cash Flows

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