Golden Ocean Group Limited (GOGL) Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

Golden Ocean Group Limited

GOGL (NASDAQ)

(%)

Valuation
Golden Ocean Group Limited Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

"""
    Model: Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

Read more: [GitHub Documentation](https://github.com/DiscountingCashFlows/Documentation/blob/main/models-documentation/discounted-free-cash-flow.md#discounted-free-cash-flow-model-source-code)
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "exit_ebitda_multiple": None,
        "%ebitda_margin": None,
        "%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda": None,
        "%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": ["beta", "%risk_free_rate", "%market_premium"]
    }]
})

# WACC Calculation
risk_free_rate = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate")
beta = assumptions.get("beta")
market_premium = assumptions.get("%market_premium")
cost_of_equity = risk_free_rate + beta * market_premium
cost_of_debt = data.get("income:interestExpense") / data.get("balance:totalDebt")

tax_rate = data.get("income:incomeTaxExpense") / data.get("income:incomeBeforeTax")

if tax_rate < 0:
    tax_rate = 0

market_cap = data.get("profile:price") * data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")
debt_weight = data.get("balance:totalDebt") / (market_cap + data.get("balance:totalDebt"))
equity_weight = 1 - debt_weight
wacc = debt_weight * cost_of_debt * (1 - tax_rate) + equity_weight * cost_of_equity

# Set the discount rate to the WACC
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", wacc)

# Compute ratios
data.compute({
    "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "flow:capitalExpenditure / income:ebitda",
    "%netIncomeToEbitda": "income:netIncome / income:ebitda",
    "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%ebitdaMargin": "income:ebitda / income:revenue",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": "flow:freeCashFlow",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

# Calculate margins
assumptions.set("%ebitda_margin", data.average("%ebitdaMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%ebitda_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda", data.average("%operatingCashFlowToEbitda"))
# Limit OCF range
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda", -data.average("%capitalExpenditureToEbitda"))
# Limit CapEx range
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda", low=0, high="90%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average("%revenueGrowthRate"))
# Limit revenue growth
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Calculate the Enterprise Value and set the exit EBITDA multiple
ev = data.get("profile:mktCap") + data.get("balance:totalDebt") - data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments")
exit_ebitda_multiple = ev / data.get("income:ebitda")
assumptions.set("exit_ebitda_multiple", exit_ebitda_multiple)

data.compute({
    "linearRegressionRevenue": f"""
        function:linear_regression:income:revenue 
        start:{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}
    """,
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        function:compound:{data.get('linearRegressionRevenue:1')} 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')} 
        offset:-1
    """,
    "income:ebitda": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%ebitda_margin')}",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "flow:operatingCashFlow": f"income:ebitda * {assumptions.get('%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda')}",
    "computedCapitalExpenditure": f"income:ebitda * {assumptions.get('%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda')}",
    "flow:freeCashFlow": "flow:operatingCashFlow - computedCapitalExpenditure",
    "flow:capitalExpenditure": "flow:freeCashFlow - flow:operatingCashFlow",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": f"""
        function:discount:flow:freeCashFlow 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    # Informational computations
    "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "flow:capitalExpenditure / income:ebitda",
    "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%ebitdaMargin": "income:ebitda / income:revenue",
    "#compoundedDiscountRate": f"""
        function:compound:1
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    "%compoundedDiscountRate": "#compoundedDiscountRate - 1",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Calculate the terminal value
terminal_value = assumptions.get("exit_ebitda_multiple") * data.get(f"income:ebitda:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

# Discount the terminal value into the present
discounted_terminal_value = terminal_value / ((1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Projected enterprise value calculation
projected_enterprise_value = discounted_terminal_value + data.sum(f"discountedFreeCashFlow:1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

# Equity value calculation
equity_value = projected_enterprise_value + data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments") - data.get("balance:totalDebt")
value_per_share = equity_value / data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": value_per_share,
    "units": "$"
})

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [exit_ebitda_multiple, "Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA)", "#"],
    [data.get(f"income:ebitda:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}"), "Terminal EBITDA", "$"],
    [terminal_value, "Terminal Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [discounted_terminal_value, "Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [projected_enterprise_value - discounted_terminal_value, "Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow", "$"],
    [projected_enterprise_value, "Present Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments"), "Cash and Equivalents", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:totalDebt"), "Total Debt", "$"],
    [equity_value, "Present Equity Value", "$"],
    [data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut"), "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [value_per_share, "Estimated Value per Share", "$"],
    [data.get("treasury:year10"), "Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note", "%"],
    [cost_of_equity, "Cost of Equity", "%"],
    [equity_weight, "Equity Weight", "%"],
    [cost_of_debt, "Cost of Debt", "%"],
    [debt_weight, "Debt Weight", "%"],
    [tax_rate, "EBIT Tax Rate", "%"],
])

# Render Chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "linearRegressionRevenue": "Linear Regression Revenue",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and Forecasted Data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "flow:operatingCashFlow",
            "flow:freeCashFlow",
            "income:ebitda",
        ],
        "hidden_keys": [
            "flow:capitalExpenditure",
            "linearRegressionRevenue",
            "discountedFreeCashFlow"
        ],
    }
})

# Render Table for Estimated Future Data
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "%ebitdaMargin": "EBITDA Margin",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "Capital Expenditure to EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "Free Cash Flow to EBITDA",
        "%compoundedDiscountRate": "Compounded Discount Rate",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Data",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
    }
})

# Render Historical Table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "%ebitdaMargin": "EBITDA Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netIncomeToEbitda": "Net Income to EBITDA",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Cash from Operating Activities",
        "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA",
        "flow:capitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "Capital Expenditure to EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "Free Cash Flow to EBITDA",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Data",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M",
    }
})

assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`)
        
        Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Equity
        
        `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`
        
        The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Debt
        
        `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt`
        
        The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofdebt.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Equity & Debt Weights
        
        `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight`
        
        The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).
        
        ---
        
        ### Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta
        
        Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate
        
        The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium
        
        The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate
        
        The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"exit_ebitda_multiple": r"""
        ## Exit EBITDA Multiple
        
        The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.
    """,

"%ebitda_margin": r"""
        ## EBITDA Margin
        
        EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda": r"""
        ## Capital Expenditure to EBITDA
        
        Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.
    """,

"%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda": r"""
        ## Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA
        
        Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years
        
        The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years
        
        The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
    """,
})

print(f"End of model.")

Model Info

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`) Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt. Read More Cost of Equity `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More Cost of Debt `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt` The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans. Read More Equity & Debt Weights `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight` The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt). Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.	%
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Exit Ebitda Multiple Exit EBITDA Multiple The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.	#
Ebitda Margin EBITDA Margin EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Capital Expenditure To Ebitda Capital Expenditure to EBITDA Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.	%
Operating Cash Flow To Ebitda Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#

Results
Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA)	8.53
Terminal EBITDA	664.6 Mil. USD
Terminal Enterprise Value	5.67 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value	3.86 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow	1.79 Bil. USD
Present Enterprise Value	5.66 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents	106.7 Mil. USD
Total Debt	1.44 Bil. USD
Present Equity Value	4.32 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	199.4 Mil.
Estimated Value per Share	21.65 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note	4.35%
Cost of Equity	9.23%
Equity Weight	53%
Cost of Debt	6.6%
Debt Weight	47%
EBIT Tax Rate	0.649%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values are in USD

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Edit Chart Values	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Data

amounts of USD except for #	2024	LTM	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029
Revenue	968.4	863.6	1,245	1,557	1,946	2,432	3,040
Revenue Growth Rate	9.33%	-10.82%	28.59%	25%	25%	25%	25%
EBITDA	454.3	348.1	272.2	340.3	425.4	531.7	664.6
EBITDA Margin	46.91%	40.3%	21.86%	21.86%	21.86%	21.86%	21.86%
Operating Cash Flow	365.3	246.2	271.6	339.5	424.3	530.4	663
Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA	80.41%	70.73%	99.76%	99.76%	99.76%	99.76%	99.76%
Capital Expenditure	-101.5	-73.56	0	0	0	0	0
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA	-22.33%	-21.13%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Free Cash Flow	263.8	172.6	271.6	339.5	424.3	530.4	663
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA	58.08%	49.59%	99.76%	99.76%	99.76%	99.76%	99.76%
Compounded Discount Rate			3.68%	11.95%	20.88%	30.55%	40.97%
Discounted Free Cash Flow	263.8	172.6	261.9	303.2	351	406.3	470.3

Historical Data

amounts of USD except for #	Average	LTM	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
Revenue	719.2	863.6	968.4	885.8	1,113	1,203	607.9	705.8	656.1	460	257.8	189.6
Revenue Growth Rate	28.66%	-10.82%	9.33%	-20.45%	-7.46%	97.91%	-13.86%	7.58%	42.62%	78.44%	35.95%	96.07%
Cost of Revenue	525.6	616.5	509.6	675.9	691.8	675	563.9	589.9	498.5	399.9	312.9	248.2
Gross Profit	193.6	247.1	458.8	209.9	421.7	528.2	44.05	115.9	157.5	60.13	-55.05	-58.56
Gross Margin	17.27%	28.61%	47.38%	23.7%	37.87%	43.9%	7.25%	16.43%	24.01%	13.07%	-21.35%	-30.88%
EBITDA	257.1	348.1	454.3	324.2	564.9	637.3	131.1	194.5	237.2	128.2	-6.83	-184.9
EBITDA Margin	21.87%	40.3%	46.91%	36.6%	50.74%	52.97%	21.56%	27.56%	36.15%	27.86%	-2.65%	-97.48%
Net Income	97.4	113.7	223.2	112.3	461.8	527.2	-137.7	37.19	84.53	-2.35	-127.7	-220.8
Net Income to EBITDA	201.8%	32.66%	49.14%	34.63%	81.75%	82.73%	-105%	19.12%	35.64%	-1.83%	1,871%	119.5%
Cash from Operating Activities	225.8	246.2	365.3	266.3	503.4	560.4	140.6	158.4	186.5	94.62	-23.05	-14.83
Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA	99.76%	70.73%	80.41%	82.16%	89.11%	87.93%	107.3%	81.45%	78.66%	73.83%	337.8%	8.02%
Capital Expenditure	-211.9	-73.56	-101.5	-477.5	-61.03	-445	-25.27	-44.12	-158.2	-158.7	-267.5	-519
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA	336.1%	-21.13%	-22.33%	-147.3%	-10.8%	-69.82%	-19.28%	-22.68%	-66.72%	-123.8%	3,920%	280.8%
Free Cash Flow	13.86	172.6	263.8	-211.2	442.4	115.4	115.4	114.3	28.31	-64.08	-290.6	-533.8
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA	435.9%	49.59%	58.08%	-65.15%	78.3%	18.11%	88.02%	58.77%	11.94%	-49.99%	4,258%	288.8%