Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Discounted Cash Flow to Firm - Exit Multiple - Discounting Cash Flows
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM (NYSE)

Fair Value per Share

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Cash Flow to Firm (Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple)

This model estimates the fair value of a share by discounting projected Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF), also known as Unlevered Free Cash Flow.

The Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple is applied to the company’s projected EBITDA in the final forecast year to estimate the terminal Enterprise Value (EV):

Terminal Enterprise Value = Exit EBITDA × Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple

The terminal value and projected FCFF are discounted to present value using WACC. Equity value is obtained by adjusting enterprise value for net debt:

Equity Value = Cumulative Present Value of FCFF + Present Value of Terminal EV + Cash and Short Term InvestmentsTotal Debt

Fair Value per Share = Equity Value ÷ Shares Outstanding

This model was inspired by Prof. Aswath Damodaran’s spreadsheet ⬇️fcff2st.xls

Learn more: Prof. Aswath Damodaran’s Guide to Discounted Cash Flow Valuation

Discount Rate (WACC)

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Equity Weight * Cost of Equity + Debt Weight * Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate)

Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.

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Cost of Equity

Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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Cost of Debt

Cost of Debt = Interest Expense / Total Debt

The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.

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Equity & Debt Weights

Debt Weight = Total Debt / (Market Capitalization + Total Debt) = 1 - Equity Weight

The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).


Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.

↳ Beta

Beta

Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Equity Risk Premium

Equity Risk Premium

The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.

↳ Tax Rate

Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).

This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.

Discount Rate

Discount Rate =
Debt Weight × Cost of Debt × (1 − Tax Rate)
+ Equity Weight × Cost of Equity

Historical Years

Historical Years

Number of trailing fiscal years used to compute historical averages/trends that feed the model’s default forecast assumptions (e.g., margins and growth).

WACC Calculation

Beta 1.28
* Equity Risk Premium 4.46%
+ Risk Free Rate 4.21%
= Cost of Equity 9.93%
* Equity Weight 98.19%
+ Cost of Debt 0.599%
* Debt Weight 1.81%
* (1 - Tax Rate) 84.02%
= WACC (Discount Rate) 9.76%

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Mar 11
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
Revenue 100,304 120,025 122,633 88,143 70,416
Revenue Growth Rate 14.38% -2.13% 39.13% 25.17% -4.65%
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT) 48,395 60,982 62,318 40,262 30,016
EBIT Margin 47.48% 50.81% 50.82% 45.68% 42.63%
Income Tax Expense 8,131 10,280 10,504 7,562 4,179
Income Tax Rate 15.68% 15.98% 15.98% 17.66% 13.1%
Depreciation and Amortization (D&A) 21,621 26,810 22,153 20,185 17,336
D&A Margin 21.98% 22.34% 18.06% 22.9% 24.62%
Capital Expenditure (CapEx) -35,290 -39,959 -40,965 -29,114 -31,121
CapEx Margin -35.98% -33.29% -33.4% -33.03% -44.2%
Change in Working Capital -2,717 -3,571 -5,851 406.6 -1,852
Change in WC Margin -2.48% -2.97% -4.77% 0.461% -2.63%
Free Cashflow to Firm (FCFF) 24,322 34,519 27,697 24,627 10,446
FCFF Margin 23.53% 28.76% 22.59% 27.94% 14.83%

Forecast Assumptions

High Growth Years

High Growth Years

Number of years with explicit projections before the model shifts to the terminal period.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Annual % increase in revenue during the forecast period.

EBIT Margin

EBIT Margin

EBIT as a % of revenue; reflects operating profitability and business mix.

Change in Working Capital Margin

Change in Working Capital Margin

Annual change in net working capital as a % of revenue; captures cash tied up (or released) in receivables, inventory, and payables.

  • A negative value represents cash tied up in operations (reduces FCFF).
  • A positive value represents a release of working capital (increases FCFF).
Depreciation and Amortization Margin

Depreciation and Amortization Margin

D&A as a % of revenue; a non-cash expense added back in cash flow, often linked to the asset base.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

CapEx as a % of revenue; cash reinvestment required to maintain and grow operations.

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31

EV/EBITDA Calculation

Market Capitalization 1,839 Bil. USD
+ Total Debt 33.92 Bil. USD
- Cash and Short Term Investments 97.51 Bil. USD
= Current Enterprise Value (EV) 1,775 Bil. USD
/ EBITDA 87.79 Bil. USD
= EV/EBITDA Multiple 20.22

Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple

Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple

Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple

The Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple is the valuation ratio applied to the company's projected EBITDA at the end of the forecast to estimate its terminal value, reflecting expected market conditions.

Fair Value Calculation

Exit EBIT (used to derive EBITDA) 114 Bil. USD
+ Exit D&A 52.77 Bil. USD
= Exit EBITDA 166.8 Bil. USD
* Exit EV/EBITDA Multiple 20.22
= Terminal Enterprise Value (EV) 3,373 Bil. USD
Terminal Value Discount Factor 59.28%
Present Value of Terminal EV 2,117 Bil. USD
+ Cumulative Present Value of FCFF 162.8 Bil. USD
+ Cash and Short Term Investments 97.51 Bil. USD
- Total Debt 33.92 Bil. USD
= Equity Value 2,344 Bil. USD
/ Shares Outstanding 5.19 Bil.
= Fair Value per Share 451.9 USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
Revenue 140,270 160,443 183,518 209,911 240,100
Revenue Growth Rate 14.38% 14.38% 14.38% 14.38% 14.38%
Free Cashflow to Firm (FCFF) 32,846 37,570 42,973 49,154 56,223
FCFF Margin 23.42% 23.42% 23.42% 23.42% 23.42%
Present Value of FCFF 29,926 31,187 32,501 33,871 35,298
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