Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited
TSM (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 1,334 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 607.9 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 259.4 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 867.3 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 81.02 Bil. USD
Total Debt 31.13 Bil. USD
Equity Value 928.1 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 5.19 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 178.9 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.18%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 61.43%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -38.98%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 102,167 117,090 132,667 148,587 164,481 179,931 194,487 207,687 219,075 228,232
Revenue Growth Rate 15.91% 14.61% 13.3% 12% 10.7% 9.39% 8.09% 6.79% 5.48% 4.18%
Operating Cash Flow 62,761 71,928 81,497 91,277 101,041 110,532 119,474 127,582 134,578 140,203
Operating Cash Flow Margin 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43% 61.43%
Capital Expenditure -39,825 -45,642 -51,714 -57,919 -64,115 -70,137 -75,811 -80,956 -85,395 -88,965
Capital Expenditure Margin -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98% -38.98%
Free Cash Flow 22,936 26,287 29,784 33,358 36,926 40,395 43,662 46,626 49,182 51,238
Free Cash Flow Margin 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45% 22.45%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.92% 16.75% 26.33% 36.66% 47.84% 59.94% 73.06% 87.21% 102.5%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 22,936 24,357 25,510 26,405 27,020 27,323 27,300 26,943 26,271 25,300

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 11
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 55,387 114,831 88,143 70,416 73,850 57,264 47,613 35,770 33,726 32,891 29,177 25,575
Revenue Growth Rate 15.91% 30.28% 25.17% -4.65% 28.96% 20.27% 33.11% 6.06% 2.54% 12.73% 14.08% 6.43%
Cost of Revenue 25,318 47,108 38,675 32,138 29,866 27,700 22,331 19,299 17,445 16,240 14,561 13,132
Gross Profit 30,069 67,723 49,468 38,278 43,985 29,564 25,282 16,471 16,280 16,651 14,615 12,443
Gross Margin 52.49% 58.98% 56.12% 54.36% 59.56% 51.63% 53.1% 46.05% 48.27% 50.62% 50.09% 48.65%
Operating Income 24,235 56,821 40,262 30,016 36,577 23,447 20,150 12,459 12,544 12,974 11,634 9,704
Operating Margin 41.81% 49.48% 45.68% 42.63% 49.53% 40.95% 42.32% 34.83% 37.2% 39.45% 39.87% 37.94%
Net Income 21,759 49,707 35,277 27,745 32,390 21,369 18,158 11,832 11,872 11,609 10,210 9,182
Net Margin 37.86% 43.29% 40.02% 39.4% 43.86% 37.32% 38.14% 33.08% 35.2% 35.3% 34.99% 35.9%
Cash from Operating Activities 34,391 68,608 55,614 40,456 52,539 40,120 29,247 20,564 18,768 19,696 16,616 16,066
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 61.43% 59.75% 63.1% 57.45% 71.14% 70.06% 61.43% 57.49% 55.65% 59.88% 56.95% 62.82%
Capital Expenditure -21,925 -40,469 -29,114 -31,121 -35,545 -30,643 -18,539 -15,704 -10,552 -11,303 -10,253 -7,938
Free Cash Flow 12,465 28,139 26,500 9,335 16,995 9,478 10,708 4,860 8,217 8,393 6,363 8,128
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Discounting Cash Flows

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