Adobe Inc. (ADBE) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
Adobe Inc.
ADBE (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price 422.21 USD

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#Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 179.4 USD
Book value of equity invested 30.03 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 34.53 USD
Terminal stage EPS 20.27 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 63.77 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 7.14 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 114.9 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 195.3 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 11.2%
Terminal year's excess return 13.12 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 31.78%
Average historical Payout Ratio 0.214%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 85.9%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.48%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 36.14 31.55 31.55 39.83 48.13 55.53 61.04
Ending Book Value 31.55 30.03 39.83 48.13 55.53 61.04 63.77
EPS 12.44 15.2 10.03 12.66 15.29 17.65 19.4
Return on Equity 33.66% 47.86% 31.78% 31.78% 31.78% 31.78% 31.78%
Dividend per Share
0.032 1.74 4.37 7.9 12.13 16.66
Payout Ratio 17.35% 0.214% 17.35% 34.49% 51.63% 68.77% 85.9%
Retained Earnings
15.17 8.29 8.29 7.4 5.51 2.73
Equity Cost 4.05 3.53 3.53 4.46 5.39 6.22 6.84
Cost of Equity 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2% 11.2%
Excess Return 8.39 11.67 6.49 8.2 9.9 11.43 12.56
Discounted Excess Return
5.84 6.63 7.2 7.47 7.39

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 3,783 6,751 5,560 5,428 4,756 4,822 5,260 2,951 2,591 1,694 1,169 629.6
Total Stockholders Equity 11,692 13,095 14,105 16,518 14,051 14,797 13,264 10,530 9,362 8,460 7,425 7,002
Return on Equity 31.78% 47.86% 33.66% 38.63% 32.14% 36.35% 49.95% 31.53% 30.62% 22.81% 16.69% 9.29%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 14.17 14.17
Payout Ratio 15.79% 0.214% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35% 17.35%
Shares Outstanding 476 436 447.1 457 470 477 481 486.3 490.6 493.6 498.3 498.8
Earnings per Share 8.1 15.2 12.44 11.88 10.13 10.1 10.94 6.07 5.28 3.43 2.35 1.26
Dividend per Share 0.032 0.032
Dividend Growth Rate
Book Value 24.82 30.03 31.55 36.14 29.9 31.02 27.58 21.65 19.08 17.14 14.9 14.04
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Discounting Cash Flows

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