Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

Caterpillar Inc.

CAT (NYSE)

(%)

Valuation
Caterpillar Inc. Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

"""
    Model: Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

# Render model description
model.render_description(r"""
## Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

Read more: [GitHub Documentation](https://github.com/DiscountingCashFlows/Documentation/blob/main/models-documentation/discounted-free-cash-flow.md#discounted-free-cash-flow-model-source-code)
""")

# Initialize assumptions
assumptions.init({
    "data": {
        "%discount_rate": None,
        "beta": data.get("profile:beta", default=1),
        "%risk_free_rate": data.get("treasury:year10"),
        "%market_premium": data.get("risk:totalEquityRiskPremium"),
        "%tax_rate": None,
        "%revenue_growth_rate": None,
        "exit_ebitda_multiple": None,
        "%ebitda_margin": None,
        "%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda": None,
        "%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda": None,
        "historical_years": 10,
        "projection_years": 5,
    },
    "hierarchies": [{
        "parent": "%discount_rate",
        "children": [
            "beta",
            "%risk_free_rate",
            "%market_premium",
            "%tax_rate"
        ]
    }]
})

# WACC Calculation
risk_free_rate = assumptions.get("%risk_free_rate")
beta = assumptions.get("beta")
market_premium = assumptions.get("%market_premium")
cost_of_equity = risk_free_rate + beta * market_premium
cost_of_debt = data.get("income:interestExpense / balance:totalDebt")
if cost_of_debt is None:
    # Use the 10-year Treasury yield instead
    cost_of_debt = data.get("treasury:year10")

tax_rate = data.get("income:incomeTaxExpense / income:incomeBeforeTax")
if tax_rate is None or tax_rate < 0:
    # Fall back to the statutory corporate rate
    tax_rate = data.get("risk:corporateTaxRate")
assumptions.set("%tax_rate", tax_rate)

market_cap = data.get("profile:price * income:weightedAverageShsOut")
debt_weight = data.get(f"balance:totalDebt / ({market_cap} + balance:totalDebt)")
if debt_weight is None:
    # Assume zero leverage if missing
    debt_weight = 0

equity_weight = 1 - debt_weight
wacc = debt_weight * cost_of_debt * (1 - assumptions.get("%tax_rate")) + equity_weight * cost_of_equity

# Set the discount rate to the WACC
assumptions.set("%discount_rate", wacc)

# Compute ratios
data.compute({
    "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "-1 * flow:capitalExpenditure",
    "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "positiveCapitalExpenditure / income:ebitda",
    "%netIncomeToEbitda": "income:netIncome / income:ebitda",
    "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%grossMargin": "income:grossProfit / income:revenue",
    "%ebitdaMargin": "income:ebitda / income:revenue",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": "flow:freeCashFlow",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
})

data.set_default_range(f"{-assumptions.get('historical_years')}->0")

# Calculate margins
assumptions.set("%ebitda_margin", data.average("%ebitdaMargin"))
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%ebitda_margin", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda", data.average("%operatingCashFlowToEbitda"))
# Limit OCF range
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda", low=0, high="100%"
)

assumptions.set("%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda", data.average("%capitalExpenditureToEbitda"))
# Limit CapEx range
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda", low=0, high="90%"
)

assumptions.set("%revenue_growth_rate", data.average("%revenueGrowthRate"))
# Limit revenue growth
assumptions.set_bounds(
    "%revenue_growth_rate", low=0, high="25%"
)

# Calculate the Enterprise Value and set the exit EBITDA multiple
ev = data.get("profile:mktCap + balance:totalDebt - balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments")
exit_ebitda_multiple = data.get(f"{ev} / income:ebitda")
assumptions.set("exit_ebitda_multiple", exit_ebitda_multiple)

# Compute forecasted values and ratios
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": f"""
        income:revenue:-1 * 
        (1 + {assumptions.get('%revenue_growth_rate')})
    """,
    "income:ebitda": f"income:revenue * {assumptions.get('%ebitda_margin')}",
    "%revenueGrowthRate": "function:growth:income:revenue",
    "flow:operatingCashFlow": f"income:ebitda * {assumptions.get('%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda')}",
    "computedCapitalExpenditure": f"income:ebitda * {assumptions.get('%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda')}",
    "flow:freeCashFlow": "flow:operatingCashFlow - computedCapitalExpenditure",
    "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "flow:operatingCashFlow - flow:freeCashFlow",
    "discountedFreeCashFlow": f"""
        function:discount:flow:freeCashFlow 
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    # Informational computations
    "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:operatingCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "positiveCapitalExpenditure / income:ebitda",
    "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "flow:freeCashFlow / income:ebitda",
    "%ebitdaMargin": "income:ebitda / income:revenue",
    "#compoundedDiscountRate": f"""
        function:compound:1
        rate:{assumptions.get('%discount_rate')} 
        continuous:true
    """,
    "%compoundedDiscountRate": "#compoundedDiscountRate - 1",
}, forecast=assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Calculate the terminal value
exit_multiple = assumptions.get("exit_ebitda_multiple")
end_year = assumptions.get("projection_years")
terminal_value = data.get(f"{exit_multiple} * income:ebitda:{end_year}")

# Discount the terminal value into the present
discounted_terminal_value = terminal_value / ((1 + assumptions.get("%discount_rate")) ** assumptions.get("projection_years"))

# Projected enterprise value calculation
projected_enterprise_value = discounted_terminal_value + data.sum(f"discountedFreeCashFlow:1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

# Equity value calculation
equity_value = projected_enterprise_value + data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments") - data.get("balance:totalDebt")
value_per_share = equity_value / data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut")

# Set the final value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": value_per_share,
    "units": "$"
})

fcf_5y_cagr = data.cagr(f"flow:freeCashFlow:-1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")
revenue_5y_cagr = data.cagr(f"income:revenue:-1->{assumptions.get('projection_years')}")

# Render results
model.render_results([
    [exit_ebitda_multiple, "Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA)", "#"],
    [data.get(f"income:ebitda:{assumptions.get('projection_years')}"), "Terminal EBITDA", "$"],
    [terminal_value, "Terminal Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [discounted_terminal_value, "Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [projected_enterprise_value - discounted_terminal_value, "Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow", "$"],
    [projected_enterprise_value, "Present Enterprise Value", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:cashAndShortTermInvestments"), "Cash and Equivalents", "$"],
    [data.get("balance:totalDebt"), "Total Debt", "$"],
    [equity_value, "Present Equity Value", "$"],
    [data.get("income:weightedAverageShsOut"), "Shares Outstanding", "#"],
    [value_per_share, "Estimated Value per Share", "$"],
    [data.get("treasury:year10"), "Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note", "%"],
    [cost_of_equity, "Cost of Equity", "%"],
    [equity_weight, "Equity Weight", "%"],
    [cost_of_debt, "Cost of Debt", "%"],
    [debt_weight, "Debt Weight", "%"],
    [revenue_5y_cagr, "Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR", "%"],
    [fcf_5y_cagr, "Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR", "%"],
])

# Render Chart
model.render_chart({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical and Forecasted Data",
        "set_editable": [
            "income:revenue",
            "flow:operatingCashFlow",
            "flow:freeCashFlow",
            "income:ebitda",
        ],
        "hidden_keys": [
            "positiveCapitalExpenditure",
            "discountedFreeCashFlow"
        ],
    }
})

# Render Table for Estimated Future Data
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "%ebitdaMargin": "EBITDA Margin",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Operating Cash Flow",
        "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "Capital Expenditure to EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "Free Cash Flow to EBITDA",
        "%compoundedDiscountRate": "Compounded Discount Rate",
        "discountedFreeCashFlow": "Discounted Free Cash Flow",
    },
    "start": -1,
    "end": "*",
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Data",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
    }
})

# Render Historical Table
model.render_table({
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:costOfRevenue": "Cost of Revenue",
        "income:grossProfit": "Gross Profit",
        "%grossMargin": "Gross Margin",
        "income:ebitda": "EBITDA",
        "%ebitdaMargin": "EBITDA Margin",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
        "%netIncomeToEbitda": "Net Income to EBITDA",
        "flow:operatingCashFlow": "Cash from Operating Activities",
        "%operatingCashFlowToEbitda": "Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA",
        "positiveCapitalExpenditure": "Capital Expenditure",
        "%capitalExpenditureToEbitda": "Capital Expenditure to EBITDA",
        "flow:freeCashFlow": "Free Cash Flow",
        "%freeCashFlowToEbitda": "Free Cash Flow to EBITDA",
    },
    "start": -assumptions.get("historical_years"),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Data",
        "display_averages": True,
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M",
    }
})

assumptions.set_description({
    "%discount_rate": r"""
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`)
        
        Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wacc.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Equity
        
        `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`
        
        The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        
        ---
        
        ### Cost of Debt
        
        `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt`
        
        The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.
        
        [Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofdebt.asp)
        
        ---
        
        ### Equity & Debt Weights
        
        `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight`
        
        The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).
        
        ---
        
        ### Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.
    """,

"beta": r"""
        ## Beta
        
        Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
    """,

"%risk_free_rate": r"""
        ## Risk-Free Rate
        
        The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
    """,

"%tax_rate": r"""
        ## Tax Rate
        
        `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax`
        
        This is the company’s **effective tax rate**, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).
        
        This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.
        
        ## Discount Rate
        
        `Discount Rate` =  
        `Debt Weight` × `Cost of Debt` × (1 − `Tax Rate`)  
        + `Equity Weight` × `Cost of Equity`
    """,

"%market_premium": r"""
        ## Market Premium
        
        The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.
    """,

"%revenue_growth_rate": r"""
        ## Revenue Growth Rate
        
        The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.
    """,

"exit_ebitda_multiple": r"""
        ## Exit EBITDA Multiple
        
        The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.
    """,

"%ebitda_margin": r"""
        ## EBITDA Margin
        
        EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
    """,

"%capital_expenditure_to_ebitda": r"""
        ## Capital Expenditure to EBITDA
        
        Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.
    """,

"%operating_cash_flow_to_ebitda": r"""
        ## Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA
        
        Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.
    """,

"historical_years": r"""
        ## Historical Years
        
        The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
    """,

"projection_years": r"""
        ## Projection Years
        
        The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
    """,
})

print(f"End of model.")

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Equity Weight` * `Cost of Equity` + `Debt Weight` * `Cost of Debt` * (1 - `Tax Rate`) Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt. Read More Cost of Equity `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More Cost of Debt `Cost of Debt` = `Interest Expense` / `Total Debt` The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans. Read More Equity & Debt Weights `Debt Weight` = `Total Debt` / (`Market Capitalization` + `Total Debt`) = 1 - `Equity Weight` The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt). Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk-Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Market Premium Market Premium The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.	%
↳ Tax Rate Tax Rate `Tax Rate` = `Income Tax Expense` / `Income Before Tax` This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items). This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible. Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Debt Weight` × `Cost of Debt` × (1 − `Tax Rate`) + `Equity Weight` × `Cost of Equity`	%
Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Exit Ebitda Multiple Exit EBITDA Multiple The exit EV/EBITDA multiple used to calculate the terminal value.	#
Ebitda Margin EBITDA Margin EBITDA expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%
Capital Expenditure To Ebitda Capital Expenditure to EBITDA Capital expenditure expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.	%
Operating Cash Flow To Ebitda Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA Operating cash flow expressed as a percentage of EBITDA.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Projection Years Projection Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#

Results
Exit EBITDA Multiple (EV/EBITDA)	25.33
Terminal EBITDA	15.65 Bil. USD
Terminal Enterprise Value	396.5 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Enterprise Value	245.3 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow	30.68 Bil. USD
Present Enterprise Value	276 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents	9.98 Bil. USD
Total Debt	43.33 Bil. USD
Present Equity Value	242.6 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding	466.5 Mil.
Estimated Value per Share	520.1 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note	4.26%
Cost of Equity	11.25%
Equity Weight	87.62%
Cost of Debt	2.38%
Debt Weight	12.38%
Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR	4.43%
Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR	-2.99%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

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"2026-12-31", "y": 10996588427, "oy": 10996588427, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -6.32, "og": -6.32}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 11483297430, "oy": 11483297430, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 11991548175, "oy": 11991548175, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 12522294097, "oy": 12522294097, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 13076530834, "oy": 13076530834, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "EBITDA", "mappingKey": "income:ebitda", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 4196000000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 7337000000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 11059000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 10867000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 6985000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 9230000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 10123000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 15110000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 15225000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 13472000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 13163261224, "oy": 13163261224, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -2.29, "og": -2.29}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 13745867166, "oy": 13745867166, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 14354259247, "oy": 14354259247, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 14989578761, "oy": 14989578761, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 15653017517, "oy": 15653017517, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "flow:freeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 2711000000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 3370000000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 3642000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 4243000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 4212000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 4726000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 5167000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 9793000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 8820000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 10274000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 7422763004, "oy": 7422763004, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -27.75, "og": -27.75}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 7751294495, "oy": 7751294495, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 8094366789, "oy": 8094366789, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 8452623463, "oy": 8452623463, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 8826736578, "oy": 8826736578, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 4.43, "og": 4.43}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Capital Expenditure", "mappingKey": "positiveCapitalExpenditure", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 2928000000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 2336000000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 2916000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 2669000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 2115000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 2472000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 2599000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 3092000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 3215000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 1465000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 3573825422}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 3732002935}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 3897181385}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 4069670633}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 4249794255}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}, {"label": "Discounted Free Cash Flow", "mappingKey": "discountedFreeCashFlow", "data": [{"l": "2016", "x": "2016-12-31", "y": 2711000000}, {"l": "2017", "x": "2017-12-31", "y": 3370000000}, {"l": "2018", "x": "2018-12-31", "y": 3642000000}, {"l": "2019", "x": "2019-12-31", "y": 4243000000}, {"l": "2020", "x": "2020-12-31", "y": 4212000000}, {"l": "2021", "x": "2021-12-31", "y": 4726000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-12-31", "y": 5167000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-12-31", "y": 9793000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-12-31", "y": 8820000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-12-31", "y": 10274000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-12-31", "y": 6800076559}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-12-31", "y": 6450806639}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-12-31", "y": 6117866227}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-12-31", "y": 5803636434}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-12-31", "y": 5505546314}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": true}], "editableDates": {"2026-12-31": 42, "2027-12-31": 43, "2028-12-31": 44, "2029-12-31": 45, "2030-12-31": 46}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-12-31	2027-12-31	2028-12-31	2029-12-31	2030-12-31

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2025 Dec 31	LTM Feb 01	2026 Dec 31	2027 Dec 31	2028 Dec 31	2029 Dec 31	2030 Dec 31
Revenue	67,589	67,589	70,580	73,704	76,967	80,373	83,930
Revenue Growth Rate	4.29%	0%	4.43%	4.43%	4.43%	4.43%	4.43%
EBITDA	13,472	13,472	13,163	13,746	14,354	14,990	15,653
EBITDA Margin	19.93%	19.93%	18.65%	18.65%	18.65%	18.65%	18.65%
Operating Cash Flow	11,739	11,739	10,997	11,483	11,992	12,522	13,077
Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA	87.14%	87.14%	83.54%	83.54%	83.54%	83.54%	83.54%
Capital Expenditure	1,465	1,465	3,574	3,732	3,897	4,070	4,250
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA	10.87%	10.87%	27.15%	27.15%	27.15%	27.15%	27.15%
Free Cash Flow	10,274	10,274	7,423	7,751	8,094	8,453	8,827
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA	76.26%	76.26%	56.39%	56.39%	56.39%	56.39%	56.39%
Compounded Discount Rate			9.16%	20.16%	32.31%	45.64%	60.32%
Discounted Free Cash Flow	10,274	10,274	6,800	6,451	6,118	5,804	5,506

Historical Data

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Feb 01	2025 Dec 31	2024 Dec 31	2023 Dec 31	2022 Dec 31	2021 Dec 31	2020 Dec 31	2019 Dec 31	2018 Dec 31	2017 Dec 31	2016 Dec 31
Revenue	55,610	67,589	67,589	64,809	67,060	59,427	50,971	41,748	53,800	54,722	45,462	38,537
Revenue Growth Rate	4.42%	0%	4.29%	-3.36%	12.84%	16.59%	22.09%	-22.4%	-1.69%	20.37%	17.97%	-18.03%
Cost of Revenue	38,177	45,730	45,730	41,485	43,797	41,915	35,968	29,671	37,384	37,719	31,906	28,640
Gross Profit	17,434	21,859	21,859	23,324	23,263	17,512	15,003	12,077	16,416	17,003	13,556	9,897
Gross Margin	30.93%	32.34%	32.34%	35.99%	34.69%	29.47%	29.43%	28.93%	30.51%	31.07%	29.82%	25.68%
EBITDA	10,643	13,472	13,472	15,225	15,110	10,123	9,230	6,985	10,867	11,059	7,337	4,196
EBITDA Margin	18.65%	19.93%	19.93%	23.49%	22.53%	17.03%	18.11%	16.73%	20.2%	20.21%	16.14%	10.89%
Net Income	6,181	8,873	8,873	10,792	10,335	6,705	6,489	2,998	6,093	6,147	754	-67
Net Income to EBITDA	51.89%	65.86%	65.86%	70.88%	68.4%	66.24%	70.3%	42.92%	56.07%	55.58%	10.28%	-1.6%
Cash from Operating Activities	8,591	11,739	11,739	12,035	12,885	7,766	7,198	6,327	6,912	6,558	5,706	5,639
Cash from Operating Activities to EBITDA	83.54%	87.14%	87.14%	79.05%	85.27%	76.72%	77.98%	90.58%	63.61%	59.3%	77.77%	134.4%
Capital Expenditure	2,479	1,465	1,465	3,215	3,092	2,599	2,472	2,115	2,669	2,916	2,336	2,928
Capital Expenditure to EBITDA	27.15%	10.87%	10.87%	21.12%	20.46%	25.67%	26.78%	30.28%	24.56%	26.37%	31.84%	69.78%
Free Cash Flow	6,112	10,274	10,274	8,820	9,793	5,167	4,726	4,212	4,243	3,642	3,370	2,711
Free Cash Flow to EBITDA	56.39%	76.26%	76.26%	57.93%	64.81%	51.04%	51.2%	60.3%	39.04%	32.93%	45.93%	64.61%

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Caterpillar Inc. Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit Multiple

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

Discounted Free Cash Flow - Exit EBITDA Multiple

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Cost of Equity

Cost of Debt

Equity & Debt Weights

Tax Rate

Beta

Risk-Free Rate

Market Premium

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

Exit EBITDA Multiple

EBITDA Margin

Capital Expenditure to EBITDA

Operating Cash Flow to EBITDA

Historical Years

Projection Years

Results

Historical and Forecasted Data

Estimated Future Data

Historical Data