Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 283.3 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 128.1 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 58.83 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 186.9 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 9.98 Bil. USD
Total Debt 43.33 Bil. USD
Equity Value 153.6 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 466.5 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 329.2 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 15.17%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -4.66%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31 2035-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
2035
Dec 31
Revenue 70,580 73,691 76,926 80,288 83,782 87,413 91,185 95,103 99,172 103,397
Revenue Growth Rate 4.43% 4.41% 4.39% 4.37% 4.35% 4.33% 4.32% 4.3% 4.28% 4.26%
Operating Cash Flow 10,707 11,179 11,670 12,180 12,710 13,261 13,833 14,427 15,044 15,685
Operating Cash Flow Margin 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17% 15.17%
Capital Expenditure -3,287 -3,432 -3,582 -3,739 -3,902 -4,071 -4,247 -4,429 -4,618 -4,815
Capital Expenditure Margin -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66% -4.66%
Free Cash Flow 7,420 7,747 8,087 8,441 8,808 9,190 9,586 9,998 10,426 10,870
Free Cash Flow Margin 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51% 10.51%
Compounded Discount Rate 7.51% 16.39% 26.03% 36.44% 47.71% 59.91% 73.16% 87.46% 102.9% 119.7%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 6,902 6,656 6,417 6,186 5,963 5,747 5,536 5,333 5,137 4,948

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Feb 01
2025
Dec 31
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
Revenue 55,610 67,589 67,589 64,809 67,060 59,427 50,971 41,748 53,800 54,722 45,462 38,537
Revenue Growth Rate 4.42% 0% 4.29% -3.36% 12.84% 16.59% 22.09% -22.4% -1.69% 20.37% 17.97% -18.03%
Cost of Revenue 38,177 45,730 45,730 41,485 43,797 41,915 35,968 29,671 37,384 37,719 31,906 28,640
Gross Profit 17,434 21,859 21,859 23,324 23,263 17,512 15,003 12,077 16,416 17,003 13,556 9,897
Gross Margin 30.93% 32.34% 32.34% 35.99% 34.69% 29.47% 29.43% 28.93% 30.51% 31.07% 29.82% 25.68%
Operating Income 8,182 11,210 11,210 13,072 12,966 7,904 6,878 4,553 8,290 8,293 4,460 1,162
Operating Margin 13.98% 16.59% 16.59% 20.17% 19.33% 13.3% 13.49% 10.91% 15.41% 15.15% 9.81% 3.02%
Net Income 6,181 8,873 8,873 10,792 10,335 6,705 6,489 2,998 6,093 6,147 754 -67
Net Margin 10.32% 13.13% 13.13% 16.65% 15.41% 11.28% 12.73% 7.18% 11.33% 11.23% 1.66% -0.174%
Cash from Operating Activities 8,591 11,739 11,739 12,035 12,885 7,766 7,198 6,327 6,912 6,558 5,706 5,639
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 15.17% 17.37% 17.37% 18.57% 19.21% 13.07% 14.12% 15.16% 12.85% 11.98% 12.55% 14.63%
Capital Expenditure -2,479 -1,465 -1,465 -3,215 -3,092 -2,599 -2,472 -2,115 -2,669 -2,916 -2,336 -2,928
Free Cash Flow 6,112 10,274 10,274 8,820 9,793 5,167 4,726 4,212 4,243 3,642 3,370 2,711
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Discounting Cash Flows

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