Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
CAT
Caterpillar Inc.
CAT (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 230.5 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 104.9 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 53.16 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 158.1 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 7.54 Bil. USD
Total Debt 41.53 Bil. USD
Equity Value 124.1 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 468.6 Mil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 264.8 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.19%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 14.93%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -5.18%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2025-12-31 2026-12-31 2027-12-31 2028-12-31 2029-12-31 2030-12-31 2031-12-31 2032-12-31 2033-12-31 2034-12-31

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Dec 31
2026
Dec 31
2027
Dec 31
2028
Dec 31
2029
Dec 31
2030
Dec 31
2031
Dec 31
2032
Dec 31
2033
Dec 31
2034
Dec 31
Revenue 66,539 68,428 70,487 72,726 75,159 77,800 80,666 83,773 87,142 90,793
Revenue Growth Rate 2.67% 2.84% 3.01% 3.18% 3.35% 3.51% 3.68% 3.85% 4.02% 4.19%
Operating Cash Flow 9,934 10,216 10,524 10,858 11,221 11,616 12,043 12,507 13,010 13,555
Operating Cash Flow Margin 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93% 14.93%
Capital Expenditure -3,448 -3,546 -3,653 -3,769 -3,895 -4,032 -4,180 -4,341 -4,516 -4,705
Capital Expenditure Margin -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18% -5.18%
Free Cash Flow 6,486 6,670 6,871 7,089 7,326 7,584 7,863 8,166 8,495 8,851
Free Cash Flow Margin 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75% 9.75%
Compounded Discount Rate 0% 7.98% 16.82% 26.42% 36.77% 47.97% 60.09% 73.24% 87.43% 102.8%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 6,486 6,177 5,882 5,608 5,357 5,125 4,912 4,714 4,532 4,365

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 09
2024
Dec 31
2023
Dec 31
2022
Dec 31
2021
Dec 31
2020
Dec 31
2019
Dec 31
2018
Dec 31
2017
Dec 31
2016
Dec 31
2015
Dec 31
Revenue 53,474 64,671 64,809 67,060 59,427 50,971 41,748 53,800 54,722 45,462 38,537 47,011
Revenue Growth Rate 2.67% -0.213% -3.36% 12.84% 16.59% 22.09% -22.4% -1.69% 20.37% 17.97% -18.03% -14.81%
Cost of Revenue 36,850 42,731 41,485 43,797 41,915 35,968 29,671 37,384 37,719 31,906 28,640 34,133
Gross Profit 16,624 21,940 23,324 23,263 17,512 15,003 12,077 16,416 17,003 13,556 9,897 12,878
Gross Margin 30.63% 33.93% 35.99% 34.69% 29.47% 29.43% 28.93% 30.51% 31.07% 29.82% 25.68% 27.39%
Operating Income 7,531 11,474 13,072 12,966 7,904 6,878 4,553 8,290 8,293 4,460 1,162 3,785
Operating Margin 13.31% 17.74% 20.17% 19.33% 13.3% 13.49% 10.91% 15.41% 15.15% 9.81% 3.02% 8.05%
Net Income 5,638 9,263 10,792 10,335 6,705 6,489 2,998 6,093 6,147 754 -67 2,512
Net Margin 9.72% 14.32% 16.65% 15.41% 11.28% 12.73% 7.18% 11.33% 11.23% 1.66% -0.174% 5.34%
Cash from Operating Activities 8,115 11,541 12,035 12,885 7,766 7,198 6,327 6,912 6,558 5,706 5,639 6,699
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 14.93% 17.85% 18.57% 19.21% 13.07% 14.12% 15.16% 12.85% 11.98% 12.55% 14.63% 14.25%
Capital Expenditure -2,696 -2,058 -3,215 -3,092 -2,599 -2,472 -2,115 -2,669 -2,916 -2,336 -2,928 -3,261
Free Cash Flow 5,419 9,483 8,820 9,793 5,167 4,726 4,212 4,243 3,642 3,370 2,711 3,438
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Discounting Cash Flows

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