Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Discounted Free Cash Flow - Perpetuity - Discounting Cash Flows
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

Discounted Free Cash Flow calculates the value of a share based on the company's estimated future Free Cash Flow figures.

See our GitHub Model Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Equity Weight * Cost of Equity + Debt Weight * Cost of Debt * (1 - Tax Rate)

Calculated using Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) formula. It represents a firm’s average after-tax cost of capital from all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt.

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Cost of Equity

Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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Cost of Debt

Cost of Debt = Interest Expense / Total Debt

The cost of debt is the effective rate that a company pays on its debt, such as bonds and loans.

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Equity & Debt Weights

Debt Weight = Total Debt / (Market Capitalization + Total Debt) = 1 - Equity Weight

The Equity Weight represents the proportion of equity-based financing (Market Capitalization), while the Debt Weight represents the proportion of debt-based financing (Total Debt).


Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

The overall tax rate paid by the company on its earned income.

↳ Beta

Beta

Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

The market risk premium represents the additional return over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the risks associated with equities.

↳ Tax Rate

Tax Rate

Tax Rate = Income Tax Expense / Income Before Tax

This is the company’s effective tax rate, reflecting the average rate of tax actually paid on its pre-tax earnings (including all statutory, deferred, and non-recurring items).

This rate is used to adjust the after-tax cost of debt, since interest expense is tax-deductible.

Discount Rate

Discount Rate =
Debt Weight × Cost of Debt × (1 − Tax Rate)
+ Equity Weight × Cost of Equity

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 2,269 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 1,479 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 467.2 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 1,946 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 28.85 Bil. USD
Total Debt 60.56 Bil. USD
Equity Value 1,988 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 7.43 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 267.4 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.24%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 43.61%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin 13.83%
Cost of Equity 9.03%
Equity Weight 98.26%
Cost of Debt 4.13%
Debt Weight 1.74%
Forecasted Revenue - 5 Year CAGR 11.14%
Forecasted Free Cash Flow - 5 Year CAGR 14.72%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-06-30 2027-06-30 2028-06-30 2029-06-30 2030-06-30

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Jun 30
2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
Revenue 281,724 313,108 347,988 386,754 429,839 477,723
Revenue Growth Rate 14.93% 11.14% 11.14% 11.14% 11.14% 11.14%
Operating Cash Flow 136,162 136,546 151,758 168,664 187,453 208,335
Operating Cash Flow Margin 48.33% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61%
Capital Expenditure 64,551 43,303 48,127 53,488 59,447 66,069
Capital Expenditure Margin 22.91% 13.83% 13.83% 13.83% 13.83% 13.83%
Free Cash Flow 71,611 93,244 103,631 115,175 128,006 142,266
Free Cash Flow Margin 25.42% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78%
Compounded Discount Rate
3.92% 13.19% 23.33% 34.34% 46.33%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 71,611 89,729 91,551 93,388 95,285 97,219

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 17
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Revenue 178,716 293,812 281,724 245,122 211,915 198,270 168,088 143,015 125,843 110,360 96,571 91,154
Revenue Growth Rate 11.14% 4.29% 14.93% 15.67% 6.88% 17.96% 17.53% 13.65% 14.03% 14.28% 5.94% -2.59%
Cost of Revenue 57,168 91,775 87,831 74,114 65,863 62,650 52,232 46,078 42,910 38,353 34,261 32,780
Gross Profit 121,548 202,037 193,893 171,008 146,052 135,620 115,856 96,937 82,933 72,007 62,310 58,374
Gross Margin 67.37% 68.76% 68.82% 69.76% 68.92% 68.4% 68.93% 67.78% 65.9% 65.25% 64.52% 64.04%
Operating Income 72,891 135,937 128,528 109,433 88,523 83,383 69,916 52,959 42,959 35,058 29,025 26,078
Operating Margin 38.51% 46.27% 45.62% 44.64% 41.77% 42.06% 41.59% 37.03% 34.14% 31.77% 30.06% 28.61%
Net Income 58,852 104,912 101,832 88,136 72,361 72,738 61,271 44,281 39,240 16,571 25,489 20,539
Net Margin 31.02% 35.71% 36.15% 35.96% 34.15% 36.69% 36.45% 30.96% 31.18% 15.02% 26.39% 22.53%
Cash from Operating Activities 80,426 147,039 136,162 118,548 87,582 89,035 76,740 60,675 52,185 43,884 39,507 33,325
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 43.61% 50.05% 48.33% 48.36% 41.33% 44.91% 45.65% 42.43% 41.47% 39.76% 40.91% 36.56%
Capital Expenditure 28,012 69,022 64,551 44,477 28,107 23,886 20,622 15,441 13,925 11,632 8,129 8,343
Capital Expenditure Margin 13.83% 23.49% 22.91% 18.14% 13.26% 12.05% 12.27% 10.8% 11.07% 10.54% 8.42% 9.15%
Free Cash Flow 52,413 78,017 71,611 74,071 59,475 65,149 56,118 45,234 38,260 32,252 31,378 24,982
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Discounting Cash Flows

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