Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 4,577 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 2,073 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 903 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 2,976 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 28.85 Bil. USD
Total Debt 60.56 Bil. USD
Equity Value 3,018 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 7.43 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 406 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.24%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 43.61%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -13.83%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-06-30 2027-06-30 2028-06-30 2029-06-30 2030-06-30 2031-06-30 2032-06-30 2033-06-30 2034-06-30 2035-06-30

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
2031
Jun 30
2032
Jun 30
2033
Jun 30
2034
Jun 30
2035
Jun 30
Revenue 313,108 345,588 378,787 412,272 445,556 478,111 509,380 538,788 565,763 589,752
Revenue Growth Rate 11.14% 10.37% 9.61% 8.84% 8.07% 7.31% 6.54% 5.77% 5.01% 4.24%
Operating Cash Flow 136,546 150,711 165,189 179,792 194,307 208,504 222,141 234,966 246,729 257,191
Operating Cash Flow Margin 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61% 43.61%
Capital Expenditure -43,303 -47,795 -52,386 -57,017 -61,620 -66,123 -70,447 -74,514 -78,245 -81,563
Capital Expenditure Margin -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83% -13.83%
Free Cash Flow 93,244 102,916 112,803 122,775 132,687 142,382 151,693 160,451 168,484 175,628
Free Cash Flow Margin 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78% 29.78%
Compounded Discount Rate 3.62% 12.16% 21.43% 31.43% 42.26% 53.99% 66.71% 80.45% 95.32% 111.4%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 89,985 91,758 92,896 93,411 93,268 92,463 90,991 88,918 86,262 83,074

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 17
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Revenue 178,716 293,812 281,724 245,122 211,915 198,270 168,088 143,015 125,843 110,360 96,571 91,154
Revenue Growth Rate 11.14% 4.29% 14.93% 15.67% 6.88% 17.96% 17.53% 13.65% 14.03% 14.28% 5.94% -2.59%
Cost of Revenue 57,168 91,775 87,831 74,114 65,863 62,650 52,232 46,078 42,910 38,353 34,261 32,780
Gross Profit 121,548 202,037 193,893 171,008 146,052 135,620 115,856 96,937 82,933 72,007 62,310 58,374
Gross Margin 67.37% 68.76% 68.82% 69.76% 68.92% 68.4% 68.93% 67.78% 65.9% 65.25% 64.52% 64.04%
Operating Income 72,891 135,937 128,528 109,433 88,523 83,383 69,916 52,959 42,959 35,058 29,025 26,078
Operating Margin 38.51% 46.27% 45.62% 44.64% 41.77% 42.06% 41.59% 37.03% 34.14% 31.77% 30.06% 28.61%
Net Income 58,852 104,912 101,832 88,136 72,361 72,738 61,271 44,281 39,240 16,571 25,489 20,539
Net Margin 31.02% 35.71% 36.15% 35.96% 34.15% 36.69% 36.45% 30.96% 31.18% 15.02% 26.39% 22.53%
Cash from Operating Activities 80,426 147,039 136,162 118,548 87,582 89,035 76,740 60,675 52,185 43,884 39,507 33,325
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 43.61% 50.05% 48.33% 48.36% 41.33% 44.91% 45.65% 42.43% 41.47% 39.76% 40.91% 36.56%
Capital Expenditure -28,012 -69,022 -64,551 -44,477 -28,107 -23,886 -20,622 -15,441 -13,925 -11,632 -8,129 -8,343
Free Cash Flow 52,413 78,017 71,611 74,071 59,475 65,149 56,118 45,234 38,260 32,252 31,378 24,982
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Discounting Cash Flows

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