Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
MSFT
Microsoft Corporation
MSFT (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 260.7 USD
Book value of equity invested 48.85 USD
Next year's estimated book value 47.37 USD
Present value of future excess returns 211.8 USD
Excess Return per share 13.82 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 9.03%
Average historical Return on Equity 38.94%
Average historical Payout Ratio 39.24%
Payout Ratio used 93.58%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.24%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Jun 30
LTM
Jan 17
2026
Jun 30
2027
Jun 30
2028
Jun 30
2029
Jun 30
2030
Jun 30
Beginning Book Value 36.13 46.21 46.21 47.37 48.55 49.76 51.01
Ending Book Value 46.21 48.85 47.37 48.55 49.76 51.01 52.28
EPS 13.7 14.1 17.99 18.44 18.91 19.38 19.86
Return on Equity 37.93% 30.54% 38.94% 38.94% 38.94% 38.94% 38.94%
Dividend per Share 3.4 3.48 16.84 17.26 17.69 18.13 18.59
Retained Earnings 10.3 10.62 1.16 1.18 1.21 1.24 1.28
Equity Cost per Share 3.26 4.17 4.17 4.28 4.38 4.49 4.6
Cost of Equity 9.03% 9.03% 9.03% 9.03% 9.03% 9.03% 9.03%
Excess Return 10.44 9.93 13.82 14.17 14.52 14.89 15.26

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 17
2025
Jun 30
2024
Jun 30
2023
Jun 30
2022
Jun 30
2021
Jun 30
2020
Jun 30
2019
Jun 30
2018
Jun 30
2017
Jun 30
2016
Jun 30
Net Income 58,852 104,912 101,832 88,136 72,361 72,738 61,271 44,281 39,240 16,571 25,489 20,539
Total Equity 177,531 363,076 343,479 268,477 206,223 166,542 141,988 118,304 102,330 82,718 87,711 71,997
Return on Equity 38.94% 30.54% 37.93% 42.74% 43.45% 51.23% 51.79% 43.27% 47.44% 18.89% 35.4% 25.65%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 18,158 25,867 25,272 22,887 20,774 19,040 17,358 15,905 15,423 13,244 12,316 11,650
Payout Ratio 39.24% 24.68% 24.82% 25.97% 28.7% 26.19% 28.33% 35.91% 39.33% 80% 48.33% 69.34%
Shares Outstanding 7,585 7,433 7,433 7,431 7,446 7,496 7,547 7,610 7,673 7,700 7,746 7,925
EPS 7.79 14.1 13.7 11.86 9.72 9.7 8.12 5.82 5.11 2.15 3.29 2.12
Dividend per Share 2.41 3.48 3.4 3.08 2.79 2.54 2.3 2.09 2.01 1.72 1.59 1.47
Book Value 23.63 48.85 46.21 36.13 27.7 22.22 18.81 15.55 13.34 10.74 11.32 9.08
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