Apple Inc. (AAPL) Discounted Future Market Cap

Apple Inc.

AAPL (NASDAQ)

(%)

Models
Apple Inc. Discounted Future Market Cap

# --- Assumptions
assumptions.set({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "#historicalYears": """
            3
        """,
        "#forecastYears": """
            5
        """,
        "#beta": """
            profile:beta
        """,
        "%riskFreeRate": """
            treasury:year10
        """,
        "%equityRiskPremium": """
            risk:totalEquityRiskPremium
        """,
        "%discountRate": """
            assumption:%riskFreeRate + assumption:#beta * assumption:%equityRiskPremium
        """,
        "#priceToEarningsRatio": """
            ratio:priceEarningsRatio
        """,
    },
    "titles": {
        "#historicalYears": "Historical Years",
        "#forecastYears": "Forecast Years",
        "#beta": "Beta",
        "%riskFreeRate": "Risk Free Rate",
        "%equityRiskPremium": "Equity Risk Premium",
        "%discountRate": "Discount Rate",
        "#priceToEarningsRatio": "Price to Earnings Ratio",
    },
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive",
        "title": "Assumptions",
        "id": "component-1",
        "bindTo": None
    },
    "descriptions": {
        "#historicalYears": r"""
The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.
        """,
        "#forecastYears": r"""
The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.
        """,
        "#beta": r"""
Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.
        """,
        "%riskFreeRate": r"""
The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.
        """,
        "%equityRiskPremium": r"""
The market risk premium is the additional return over the risk-free rate expected by investors for equity risk.
        """,
        "%discountRate": r"""
`Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium`

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

[Read More](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/costofequity.asp#mntl-sc-block_1-0-20)
        """,
        "#priceToEarningsRatio": r"""
Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period.

`Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`
        """,
    },
    "hierarchies": [
        {
            "parent": "%discountRate",
            "children": [
                "#beta",
                "%riskFreeRate",
                "%equityRiskPremium",
            ]
        },
    ]
})

# Render description block
model.render_description({
    "data": r"""
## Discounted Future Market Cap

This model estimates the intrinsic value of a common share by projecting the future market capitalization using the estimated P/E ratio, then discounting it to the present using an annual required rate of return (referred to as the discount rate).
""",
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Historical Averages
data.compute({
    "user:%revenueGrowthRate": """
        ( income:revenue / income:revenue:-1 ) - 1
    """,
    "user:%netIncomeMargin": """
        income:netIncome / income:revenue
    """,
    "user:%equityGrowthRate": """
        ( balance:totalStockholdersEquity / balance:totalStockholdersEquity:-1 ) - 1
    """,
}, forecast=0, timeseries="annual")

model.render_table({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "user:%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "user:%netIncomeMargin": "Net Income Margin",
        "user:%equityGrowthRate": "Equity Growth Rate",
        "ratio:returnOnInvestedCapital": "Return On Invested Capital",
    },
    "start": data.get("""
        -assumption:#historicalYears
    """),
    "end": 0,
    "properties": {
        "title": "Historical Averages",
        "order": "descending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "include_ltm": True,
        "display_averages": True,
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Net Margin & Revenue Growth
assumptions.set({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "%revenueGrowthRate": """
             function:average(start=-assumption:#historicalYears, end=0):user:%revenueGrowthRate 
            or if this > 25%:
            25%
        """,
        "%netIncomeMargin": """
             function:average(start=-assumption:#historicalYears, end=0):user:%netIncomeMargin 
            or if this > 100%:
            100%
            
        """,
    },
    "titles": {
        "%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "%netIncomeMargin": "Net Income Margin",
    },
    "properties": {
        "width": "responsive",
        "title": "Net Margin & Revenue Growth",
        "id": "component-5",
        "bindTo": None
    },
    "descriptions": {
        "%revenueGrowthRate": r"""
The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.
        """,
        "%netIncomeMargin": r"""
Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.
        """,
    }
})

# --- Forecast
data.compute({
    "income:revenue": """
        income:revenue:-1 * (1 + assumption:%revenueGrowthRate)
    """,
    "income:netIncome": """
        income:revenue * assumption:%netIncomeMargin
    """,
}, forecast=data.get("""
    assumption:#forecastYears
"""), timeseries="annual")

model.render_chart({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": -5,
    "end": data.get("""
        assumption:#forecastYears
    """),
    "properties": {
        "title": "Forecast",
        "include_ltm": False,
        "set_editable": ["income:revenue", "income:netIncome"],
        "hidden_keys": [],
        "bar_keys": [],
        "width": "full"
    }
})

# --- Estimated Future Values
data.compute({
    "user:%revenueGrowthRate": """
        ( income:revenue / income:revenue:-1 ) - 1
    """,
}, forecast=data.get("""
    assumption:#forecastYears
"""), timeseries="annual")

model.render_table({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:revenue": "Revenue",
        "user:%revenueGrowthRate": "Revenue Growth Rate",
        "income:netIncome": "Net Income",
    },
    "start": 1,
    "end": data.get("""
        assumption:#forecastYears
    """),
    "properties": {
        "title": "Estimated Future Values",
        "order": "ascending",
        "number_format": "M",
        "include_ltm": False,
        "display_averages": False,
        "width": "responsive"
    }
})

# --- Fair Value Calculation
data.compute_results({
    "estimatedMarketCapitalization": """
        assumption:#priceToEarningsRatio * income:netIncome:assumption:#forecastYears
    """,
    "discountedMarketCapitalization": """
        result:estimatedMarketCapitalization / (1 + assumption:%discountRate) ** assumption:#forecastYears
    """,
    "#equityValuePerShare": """
        result:discountedMarketCapitalization / income:weightedAverageShsOut
    """,
}, timeseries="annual")

model.render_results({
    "timeseries": "annual",
    "data": {
        "income:netIncome:assumption:#forecastYears": {
            "label": "End Net Income",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "assumption:#priceToEarningsRatio": {
            "label": "* End Price to Earnings Ratio",
            "type": ""
        },
        "result:estimatedMarketCapitalization": {
            "label": "= End Market Capitalization",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "result:discountedMarketCapitalization": {
            "label": "Discounted Market Capitalization",
            "type": "$"
        },
        "income:weightedAverageShsOut": {
            "label": "/ Shares Outstanding",
            "type": ""
        },
        "result:#equityValuePerShare": {
            "label": "= Fair Value per Share",
            "type": "$"
        },
    },
    "properties": {
        "title": "Fair Value Calculation",
        "width": "responsive",
        "hidden_keys": []
    }
})

# --- Fair Value
model.set_final_value({
    "value": data.get("""
        result:#equityValuePerShare
    """, timeseries="annual"),
    "units": "$",
    "title": "Fair Value",
    "properties": {
        "width": "full" 
    }
})

Fair Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Assumptions

Discount Rate Discount Rate `Discount Rate` = `Cost of Equity` = `Risk Free Rate` + `Beta` * `Market Premium` The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula. Read More	%
↳ Beta Beta Beta measures the volatility of a stock's price in relation to the overall stock market. A higher beta indicates greater price fluctuations relative to the market.	#
↳ Risk Free Rate Risk Free Rate The risk-free rate represents the return an investor expects from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified time period. By default, it is set to the current yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.	%
↳ Equity Risk Premium Equity Risk Premium The market risk premium is the additional return over the risk-free rate expected by investors for equity risk.	%
Historical Years Historical Years The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.	#
Forecast Years Forecast Years The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.	#
Price to Earnings Ratio Price to Earnings Ratio Estimated Price to Earnings (PE) Ratio at the end of the projection period. `Future Market Cap` = `PE Ratio` * `Projected Net Income`	#

Discounted Future Market Cap

Historical Averages

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	Average	LTM Mar 07	2025 Sep 27	2024 Sep 28	2023 Sep 30
Revenue Growth Rate	2.58%	4.67%	6.43%	2.02%	-2.8%
Net Income Margin	25.81%	27.04%	26.92%	23.97%	25.31%
Equity Growth Rate	15.84%	19.61%	29.47%	-8.36%	22.64%
Return On Invested Capital	97.78%	143%	85.44%	84.39%	78.28%

Net Margin & Revenue Growth

Revenue Growth Rate Revenue Growth Rate The annual revenue growth rate is applied to projected revenue starting from the second projection year onward.	%
Net Income Margin Net Income Margin Net Income expressed as a percentage of Revenue.	%

Forecast

Monetary values in USD

{"sectionId": "section-chart-1", "sectionType": "chart", "title": "Forecast", "timeseries": "annual", "series": [{"label": "Revenue", "mappingKey": "income:revenue", "data": [{"l": "2021", "x": "2021-09-25", "y": 365817000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-09-24", "y": 394328000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-09-30", "y": 383285000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-09-28", "y": 391035000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-09-27", "y": 416161000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-09-27", "y": 426900200078, "oy": 426900200078, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-09-27", "y": 437916529486, "oy": 437916529486, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-09-27", "y": 449217139653, "oy": 449217139653, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-09-27", "y": 460809366560, "oy": 460809366560, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-09-27", "y": 472700735491, "oy": 472700735491, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}, {"label": "Net Income", "mappingKey": "income:netIncome", "data": [{"l": "2021", "x": "2021-09-25", "y": 94680000000}, {"l": "2022", "x": "2022-09-24", "y": 99803000000}, {"l": "2023", "x": "2023-09-30", "y": 96995000000}, {"l": "2024", "x": "2024-09-28", "y": 93736000000}, {"l": "2025", "x": "2025-09-27", "y": 112010000000}, {"l": "2026", "x": "2026-09-27", "y": 110171605079, "oy": 110171605079, "e": true, "d": 2026, "g": -1.64, "og": -1.64}, {"l": "2027", "x": "2027-09-27", "y": 113014627154, "oy": 113014627154, "e": true, "d": 2027, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2028", "x": "2028-09-27", "y": 115931014545, "oy": 115931014545, "e": true, "d": 2028, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2029", "x": "2029-09-27", "y": 118922660472, "oy": 118922660472, "e": true, "d": 2029, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}, {"l": "2030", "x": "2030-09-27", "y": 121991507011, "oy": 121991507011, "e": true, "d": 2030, "g": 2.58, "og": 2.58}], "dataType": ".", "displayAs": "line", "dataTimeseries": "annual", "hidden": false}], "editableDates": {"2026-09-27": 42, "2027-09-27": 43, "2028-09-27": 44, "2029-09-27": 45, "2030-09-27": 46}, "properties": {"display_table": true}, "width": "full"}

Edit Chart Values	2026-09-27	2027-09-27	2028-09-27	2029-09-27	2030-09-27

↳ Growth Rate

Estimated Future Values

Monetary values in USD amounts except #	2026 Sep 27	2027 Sep 27	2028 Sep 27	2029 Sep 27	2030 Sep 27
Revenue	426,900	437,917	449,217	460,809	472,701
Revenue Growth Rate	2.58%	2.58%	2.58%	2.58%	2.58%
Net Income	110,172	113,015	115,931	118,923	121,992

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Sep 27

2027
Sep 27

2028
Sep 27

2029
Sep 27

2030
Sep 27

Revenue

426,900

437,917

449,217

460,809

472,701

Revenue Growth Rate

2.58%

Net Income

110,172

113,015

115,931

118,923

121,992

Fair Value Calculation
End Net Income	122 Bil. USD
* End Price to Earnings Ratio	32.24
= End Market Capitalization	3,933 Bil. USD
Discounted Market Capitalization	2,541 Bil. USD
/ Shares Outstanding	14.75 Bil.
= Fair Value per Share	172.3 USD

Fair Value

USD