The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) Two-Stage Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
GS (NYSE)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

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Two-Stage Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies based on two stages of growth. An initial period of high growth, represented by [Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage], followed by a period of stable growth, represented by [Discounted excess return in terminal stage]. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

Read more: GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Results

Estimated Value 434.3 USD
Book value of equity invested 387.5 USD
Sum of discounted excess returns in Growth Stage 10.65 USD
Terminal stage EPS 53.11 USD
Terminal stage Book Value 495.4 USD
Terminal stage Equity Cost 49.79 USD
Discounted excess return in terminal stage 36.14 USD
Excess Returns in the Terminal Stage 58.33 USD
Terminal Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 10.05%
Terminal year's excess return 3.32 USD
Average historical Return on Equity 10.72%
Average historical Payout Ratio 23.13%
Payout Ratio in stable stage 59.33%
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond 4.36%

Historical and Forecasted Data

In USD

Edit Chart Values 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 343.0 371.8 371.8 399.6 426.3 451.5 474.7
Ending Book Value 371.8 387.5 399.6 426.3 451.5 474.7 495.4
EPS 41.22 43.67 39.86 42.83 45.7 48.4 50.89
Return on Equity 12.21% 12.2% 10.72% 10.72% 10.72% 10.72% 10.72%
Dividend per Share 11.5 12 12.11 16.11 20.5 25.21 30.19
Payout Ratio 27.9% 27.48% 30.37% 37.61% 44.85% 52.09% 59.33%
Retained Earnings 29.72 31.67 27.75 26.72 25.2 23.19 20.7
Equity Cost 34.47 37.37 37.37 40.16 42.84 45.38 47.71
Cost of Equity 10.05% 10.05% 10.05% 10.05% 10.05% 10.05% 10.05%
Excess Return 6.75 6.3 2.49 2.68 2.86 3.03 3.18
Discounted Excess Return
2.26 2.21 2.14 2.06 1.97

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 10,611 14,882 14,276 8,516 11,261 21,635 9,459 8,466 10,459 4,286 7,398 6,083
Total Stockholders Equity 102,051 124,300 121,996 116,905 117,189 109,926 95,932 90,265 90,185 82,243 86,893 86,728
Return on Equity 10.71% 12.2% 12.21% 7.27% 10.24% 22.55% 10.48% 9.39% 12.72% 4.93% 8.53% 7.35%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 2,237 3,850 3,773 3,578 3,169 2,278 1,782 1,542 1,214 1,165 1,111 1,145
Payout Ratio 23.13% 27.48% 27.9% 45.55% 29.44% 10.77% 19.99% 19.53% 11.61% 27.67% 15.29% 19.23%
Shares Outstanding 371.2 320.8 328.1 340.8 352.1 350.5 356.4 371.6 385.4 401.6 427.4 448.9
Earnings per Share 28.45 43.67 41.22 23.05 30.57 60.35 25.01 21.25 27.14 10.48 17 13.26
Dividend per Share 6.35 12 11.5 10.5 9.0 6.5 5.0 4.15 3.15 2.9 2.6 2.55
Dividend Growth Rate 16.97% 4.35% 9.52% 16.67% 38.46% 30% 20.48% 31.75% 8.62% 11.54% 1.96% 13.33%
Book Value 281.5 387.5 371.8 343.0 332.8 313.6 269.2 242.9 234.0 204.8 203.3 193.2
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Discounting Cash Flows

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