Apple Inc. (AAPL) Nathan Winklepleck, CFA's Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow - Discounting Cash Flows
AAPL
Apple Inc.
AAPL (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Nathan's Discounted Free Cash Flow Model

The Discounted Free Cash Flow (DCF) model calculates the value of a company by estimating its future Free Cash Flows to the Firm (FCFF) and discounting them to their present value. The value of a share is then derived by adjusting for net debt and dividing by the number of shares outstanding.

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Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = 10 Year Treasury Note Yield + 4%

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow indefinitely. By default, this rate equals the yield of the U.S. 10-Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of years of historical data used to calculate averages and trends for analysis.

Projection Years

Projection Years

The number of years into the future for which the analysis projects financial performance and metrics.

Revenue Growth Rate

Revenue Growth Rate

The annual growth rate applied to projected revenue, starting from the second projection year onward.

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Operating Cash Flow Margin

Projected Operating Cash Flow = Projected Revenue * Operating Cash Flow Margin

This margin represents the percentage of revenue used to estimate future Operating Cash Flow.

Capital Expenditure Margin

Capital Expenditure Margin

Projected Free Cash Flow = Projected Operating Cash Flow - Projected Revenue * Capital Expenditure Margin

This margin is used to estimate future capital expenditures as a percentage of revenue, which in turn is subtracted from Operating Cash Flow to calculate Free Cash Flow.

Results

Terminal Value 4,450 Bil. USD
Discounted Terminal Value 2,012 Bil. USD
Sum of Discounted Free Cash Flow 922.4 Bil. USD
Enterprise Value 2,935 Bil. USD
Cash and Equivalents 33.54 Bil. USD
Total Debt 112.4 Bil. USD
Equity Value 2,877 Bil. USD
Shares Outstanding 14.95 Bil. USD
Estimated Value per Share 192.5 USD
Yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Note 4.26%
Average Cash from Operating Activities Margin 28.73%
Average Capital Expenditure Margin -3.7%

Monetary values in USD

Edit Chart Values 2026-09-27 2027-09-27 2028-09-27 2029-09-27 2030-09-27 2031-09-27 2032-09-27 2033-09-27 2034-09-27 2035-09-27

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2026
Sep 27
2027
Sep 27
2028
Sep 27
2029
Sep 27
2030
Sep 27
2031
Sep 27
2032
Sep 27
2033
Sep 27
2034
Sep 27
2035
Sep 27
Revenue 440,602 465,689 491,370 517,586 544,273 571,361 598,773 626,427 654,236 682,106
Revenue Growth Rate 5.87% 5.69% 5.51% 5.33% 5.16% 4.98% 4.8% 4.62% 4.44% 4.26%
Operating Cash Flow 126,585 133,792 141,171 148,702 156,370 164,152 172,028 179,973 187,962 195,969
Operating Cash Flow Margin 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73% 28.73%
Capital Expenditure -16,302 -17,230 -18,181 -19,151 -20,138 -21,140 -22,155 -23,178 -24,207 -25,238
Capital Expenditure Margin -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7% -3.7%
Free Cash Flow 110,283 116,562 122,990 129,552 136,232 143,012 149,873 156,795 163,755 170,731
Free Cash Flow Margin 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03% 25.03%
Compounded Discount Rate 5.54% 14.26% 23.72% 33.94% 45.01% 56.98% 69.99% 84.03% 99.23% 115.7%
Discounted Free Cash Flow 104,493 102,016 99,408 96,722 93,949 91,100 88,167 85,201 82,194 79,158

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 22
2025
Sep 27
2024
Sep 28
2023
Sep 30
2022
Sep 24
2021
Sep 25
2020
Sep 26
2019
Sep 28
2018
Sep 29
2017
Sep 30
2016
Sep 24
Revenue 328,359 416,161 416,161 391,035 383,285 394,328 365,817 274,515 260,174 265,595 229,234 215,639
Revenue Growth Rate 5.87% 0% 6.43% 2.02% -2.8% 7.79% 33.26% 5.51% -2.04% 15.86% 6.3% -7.73%
Cost of Revenue 188,223 220,960 220,960 210,352 214,137 223,546 212,981 169,559 161,782 163,756 141,048 131,376
Gross Profit 140,135 195,201 195,201 180,683 169,148 170,782 152,836 104,956 98,392 101,839 88,186 84,263
Gross Margin 41.93% 46.91% 46.91% 46.21% 44.13% 43.31% 41.78% 38.23% 37.82% 38.34% 38.47% 39.08%
Operating Income 95,862 133,050 133,050 123,216 114,301 119,437 108,949 66,288 63,930 70,898 61,344 60,024
Operating Margin 28.67% 31.97% 31.97% 31.51% 29.82% 30.29% 29.78% 24.15% 24.57% 26.69% 26.76% 27.84%
Net Income 79,588 112,010 112,010 93,736 96,995 99,803 94,680 57,411 55,256 59,531 48,351 45,687
Net Margin 23.74% 26.92% 26.92% 23.97% 25.31% 25.31% 25.88% 20.91% 21.24% 22.41% 21.09% 21.19%
Cash from Operating Activities 94,173 111,482 111,482 118,254 110,543 122,151 104,038 80,674 69,391 77,434 64,225 66,231
Cash from Operating Activities Margin 28.73% 26.79% 26.79% 30.24% 28.84% 30.98% 28.44% 29.39% 26.67% 29.15% 28.02% 30.71%
Capital Expenditure -11,372 -12,715 -12,715 -9,447 -10,959 -10,708 -11,085 -7,309 -10,495 -13,313 -12,795 -13,548
Free Cash Flow 82,801 98,767 98,767 108,807 99,584 111,443 92,953 73,365 58,896 64,121 51,430 52,683
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Discounting Cash Flows

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