Apple Inc. (AAPL) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
AAPL
Apple Inc.
AAPL (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 68.41 USD
Book value of equity invested 4.45 USD
Next year's estimated book value 3.87 USD
Present value of future excess returns 63.95 USD
Excess Return per share 3.35 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 9.59%
Average historical Return on Equity 99.95%
Average historical Payout Ratio 20.52%
Payout Ratio used 95.65%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.35%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values are in USD

amounts of USD except for #

2024 LTM 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029
Beginning Book Value 3.95 3.71 3.71 3.87 4.04 4.22 4.4
Ending Book Value 3.71 4.45 3.87 4.04 4.22 4.4 4.59
EPS 6.11 6.43 3.71 3.87 4.04 4.22 4.4
Return on Equity 150.8% 170.8% 99.95% 99.95% 99.95% 99.95% 99.95%
Dividend per Share 0.99 1.01 3.55 3.7 3.86 4.03 4.21
Retained Earnings 5.12 5.42 0.161 0.168 0.176 0.183 0.191
Equity Cost per Share 0.379 0.356 0.356 0.372 0.388 0.405 0.422
Cost of Equity 9.59% 9.59% 9.59% 9.59% 9.59% 9.59% 9.59%
Excess Return 5.73 6.07 3.35 3.5 3.65 3.81 3.98

amounts of USD except for #

Average LTM 2024 2023 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015
Net Income 72,922 97,294 93,736 96,995 99,803 94,680 57,411 55,256 59,531 48,351 45,687 53,394
Total Equity 85,844 66,796 56,950 62,146 50,672 63,090 65,339 90,488 107,147 134,047 128,249 119,355
Return on Equity 99.94% 170.8% 150.8% 191.4% 158.2% 144.9% 63.45% 51.57% 44.41% 37.7% 38.28% 47.87%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 13,929 15,144 15,190 14,957 14,757 14,447 14,003 14,038 13,974 12,834 12,189 11,691
Payout Ratio 20.52% 15.71% 16.2% 15.42% 14.8% 15.26% 24.38% 25.42% 23.5% 26.51% 26.65% 21.9%
Shares Outstanding 18,219 14,994 15,344 15,744 16,216 16,701 17,352 18,471 19,822 20,869 21,883 23,014
EPS 4.23 6.43 6.11 6.16 6.15 5.67 3.31 2.99 3 2.32 2.09 2.32
Dividend per Share 0.789 1.01 0.99 0.95 0.91 0.865 0.807 0.76 0.705 0.615 0.557 0.508
Book Value 4.6 4.45 3.71 3.95 3.12 3.78 3.77 4.9 5.41 6.42 5.86 5.19
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Discounting Cash Flows

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