Apple Inc. (AAPL) Simple Excess Return Model - Discounting Cash Flows
AAPL
Apple Inc.
AAPL (NASDAQ)

Estimated Value

USD

Market Price USD

* Values are not guaranteed, please do your own
research before making investment decisions.

Simple Excess Return Model

Used to estimate the value of companies that have reached maturity and earn stable excess returns with little to no high growth chance. Excess Return models are better suited to calculate the intrinsic value of a financial company than an enterprise valuation model (such as the Discounted Free Cash Flow Model).

See our GitHub Documentation

Interactive Assumptions

Discount Rate

Discount Rate

Discount Rate = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + Beta * Market Premium

The cost of equity is the theoretical rate of return that an equity investment should generate. It is calculated using the CAPM formula.

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↳ Beta

Beta

Beta is a value that measures the price fluctuations (volatility) of a stock with respect to fluctuations in the overall stock market.

↳ Risk Free Rate

Risk-Free Rate

The risk-free rate represents the interest an investor would expect from an absolutely risk-free investment over a specified period of time. By default, it is equal to the current yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

↳ Market Premium

Market Premium

Market risk premium represents the excess returns over the risk-free rate that investors expect for taking on the incremental risks connected to the equities market.

Return On Equity

Return on Equity

Return On Equity (ROE) is used to estimate the Earnings Per Share (EPS) expressed as a percentage of Book Value.

Growth In Perpetuity

Growth in Perpetuity

The rate at which the company's free cash flow is assumed to grow in perpetuity. By default, this is equal to the yield of the U.S. 10 Year Treasury Bond.

Historical Years

Historical Years

The number of historical years used to calculate averages for historical data.

Results

Estimated Value 73.24 USD
Book value of equity invested 4.93 USD
Next year's estimated book value 5.06 USD
Present value of future excess returns 68.31 USD
Excess Return per share 4.49 USD
Cost of Equity (the discount rate) 9.07%
Average historical Return on Equity 111.8%
Average historical Payout Ratio 19.61%
Payout Ratio used 97.5%
Risk Free Rate of the 10 Year U.S. Treasury Note 4.18%

Historical and Forecasted Data

Monetary values in USD

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

2025
Sep 27
LTM
Jan 11
2026
Sep 27
2027
Sep 27
2028
Sep 27
2029
Sep 27
2030
Sep 27
Beginning Book Value 3.71 4.93 4.93 5.06 5.18 5.31 5.44
Ending Book Value 4.93 4.93 5.06 5.18 5.31 5.44 5.58
EPS 7.49 7.48 4.93 5.06 5.18 5.31 5.44
Return on Equity 196.7% 151.9% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Dividend per Share 1.03 1.03 4.81 4.93 5.05 5.18 5.31
Retained Earnings 6.46 6.45 0.123 0.126 0.13 0.133 0.136
Equity Cost per Share 0.336 0.447 0.447 0.458 0.47 0.482 0.494
Cost of Equity 9.07% 9.07% 9.07% 9.07% 9.07% 9.07% 9.07%
Excess Return 7.15 7.03 4.49 4.6 4.71 4.83 4.95

Monetary values in USD

amounts except #

Average LTM
Jan 11
2025
Sep 27
2024
Sep 28
2023
Sep 30
2022
Sep 24
2021
Sep 25
2020
Sep 26
2019
Sep 28
2018
Sep 29
2017
Sep 30
2016
Sep 24
Net Income 79,588 112,010 112,010 93,736 96,995 99,803 94,680 57,411 55,256 59,531 48,351 45,687
Total Equity 82,327 73,733 73,733 56,950 62,146 50,672 63,090 65,339 90,488 107,147 134,047 128,249
Return on Equity 111.8% 151.9% 196.7% 150.8% 191.4% 158.2% 144.9% 63.45% 51.57% 44.41% 37.7% 38.28%
Dividends Paid to Common Shareholders 14,289 15,397 15,397 15,190 14,957 14,757 14,447 14,003 14,038 13,974 12,834 12,189
Payout Ratio 19.61% 13.77% 13.75% 16.2% 15.42% 14.8% 15.26% 24.38% 25.42% 23.5% 26.51% 26.65%
Shares Outstanding 17,482 14,948 14,948 15,344 15,744 16,216 16,701 17,352 18,471 19,822 20,869 21,883
EPS 4.8 7.48 7.49 6.11 6.16 6.15 5.67 3.31 2.99 3 2.32 2.09
Dividend per Share 0.838 1.03 1.03 0.99 0.95 0.91 0.865 0.807 0.76 0.705 0.615 0.557
Book Value 4.62 4.93 4.93 3.71 3.95 3.12 3.78 3.77 4.9 5.41 6.42 5.86
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